UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
Saturday, February 16, 2013·London, England, United Kingdom
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightHIT
Renan Barao won by Submission (R4)
Barao 52%48% McDonald
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +9(favors Barao)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Barao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors McDonald)
FeatherweightHIT
Cub Swanson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Swanson 52%48% Poirier
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +120(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Poirier)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jimi Manuwa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Manuwa 57%43% Diabate
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +2(favors Manuwa)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Manuwa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Diabate)
WelterweightHIT
Gunnar Nelson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nelson 82%18% Santiago
STRONG
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +290(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Nelson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Nelson)
Light HeavyweightMISS
James Te Huna won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Huna 40%60% Jimmo
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Huna)
→Striking volume advantage: -12.2(favors Jimmo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.8(favors Huna)
Welterweight
Mills 34%66% Riddle
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -4(favors Riddle)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Riddle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Mills)
LightweightHIT
Renee Forte won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Forte 60%40% Etim
LEAN
→Elo gap: -216(favors Etim)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Etim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Etim)
LightweightHIT
Danny Castillo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Castillo 62%38% Sass
LEAN
→Elo gap: -94(favors Sass)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Castillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Castillo)
FeatherweightHIT
Andy Ogle won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ogle 60%40% Grispi
LEAN
→Elo gap: +205(favors Ogle)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Ogle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Grispi)
MiddleweightHIT
Tom Watson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Watson 65%35% Nedkov
LEAN
→Elo gap: -218(favors Nedkov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Watson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nedkov)
BantamweightMISS
Vaughan Lee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lee 47%53% Tezuka
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -22(favors Tezuka)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Lee)
FlyweightHIT
Phil Harris won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Harris 70%30% Gomez
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +37(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Gomez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Harris)