UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Renan Barao (9-7) taking on Michael McDonald (6-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring McDonald.

McDonald is rated at 1193 — 372 points above Barao's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Barao's all-rounder game against McDonald's knockout artist approach. Barao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McDonald is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barao throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. McDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Barao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renan Barao over Michael McDonald. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barao at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on Dustin Poirier (22-8).

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 426 points above Swanson's 1255. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Swanson's striker game against Poirier's wrestler approach. Swanson brings a versatile approach, while Poirier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Swanson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cub Swanson over Dustin Poirier. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Swanson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimi Manuwa (6-5) taking on Cyrille Diabate (4-3). Diabate is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Manuwa is rated at 1070 — 208 points above Diabate's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Manuwa's all-rounder game against Diabate's knockout artist approach. Manuwa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Diabate is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Manuwa throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Diabate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Diabate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimi Manuwa over Cyrille Diabate. The model gives Manuwa a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Gunnar Nelson (10-5) taking on Jorge Santiago (1-4). Santiago is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nelson is rated at 1310 — 539 points above Santiago's 772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nelson's wrestler game against Santiago's knockout artist approach. Nelson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Santiago is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nelson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gunnar Nelson over Jorge Santiago. The model is firm on this one: Nelson at 82%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features James Te Huna (5-4) taking on Ryan Jimmo (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jimmo at 974 versus Huna at 843. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Huna's submission artist game against Jimmo's striker approach. Huna is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Jimmo brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jimmo throws significantly more leather — a 12.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Huna is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Jimmo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Jimmo over James Te Huna. The model gives Jimmo a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Che Mills (2-1) taking on Matthew Riddle (7-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Mills at 1155, Riddle at 1158. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riddle throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Mills is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Riddle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matthew Riddle over Che Mills. We're leaning Riddle here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Renee Forte (1-2) taking on Terry Etim (6-4). Etim is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Etim at 947 versus Forte at 864. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Etim throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Etim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Forte has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renee Forte over Terry Etim. The model gives Forte a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Danny Castillo (7-6) taking on Paul Sass (3-1). Sass is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Sass at 1099 versus Castillo at 951. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Castillo throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Sass has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Castillo over Paul Sass. The model gives Castillo a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Andy Ogle (1-4) taking on Josh Grispi (0-3). Grispi is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Ogle carries a modest Elo edge (724 to 687), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ogle throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Grispi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Ogle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andy Ogle over Josh Grispi. The model gives Ogle a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Tom Watson (2-4) taking on Stanislav Nedkov (1-1). Watson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Watson at 868, Nedkov at 881. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Watson throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nedkov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Watson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tom Watson over Stanislav Nedkov. The model gives Watson a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Vaughan Lee (3-4) taking on Motonobu Tezuka (0-1).

Lee carries a modest Elo edge (891 to 831), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Motonobu Tezuka over Vaughan Lee. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tezuka at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Phil Harris (1-2) taking on Ulysses Gomez (0-1).

Harris carries a modest Elo edge (840 to 797), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomez throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Harris over Ulysses Gomez. We're leaning Harris here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.