UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Frankie Edgar (18-10-1).

Aldo is rated at 1420 — 235 points above Edgar's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Jose Aldo. The model gives Edgar a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rogerio Nogueira (6-6) taking on Rashad Evans (14-7-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Nogueira at 1142, Evans at 1121. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Nogueira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Evans brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Nogueira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nogueira throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rashad Evans over Rogerio Nogueira. The model is firm on this one: Evans at 76%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Antonio Silva (3-6-1) taking on Alistair Overeem (12-7).

Overeem is rated at 1412 — 481 points above Silva's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Overeem throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Overeem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Overeem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alistair Overeem over Antonio Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Overeem at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Jon Fitch (14-2-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Maia at 1371, Fitch at 1398. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fitch throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Fitch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Fitch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Jon Fitch. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Maia at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Benavidez (15-5) taking on Ian McCall (2-2-1).

Benavidez is rated at 1291 — 249 points above McCall's 1042. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Benavidez's wrestler game against McCall's striker approach. Benavidez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while McCall brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCall throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McCall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Benavidez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joseph Benavidez over Ian McCall. The model gives Benavidez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Evan Dunham (11-8-1) taking on Gleison Tibau (16-11).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dunham at 1019, Tibau at 1019. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Dunham's knockout artist game against Tibau's wrestler approach. Dunham is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Tibau looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Tibau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Evan Dunham. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tibau at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Tyron Woodley (9-5-1) taking on Jay Hieron (0-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Hieron.

Woodley is rated at 1461 — 716 points above Hieron's 746. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hieron throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hieron is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Woodley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyron Woodley over Jay Hieron. The model gives Woodley a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Jacob Volkmann (6-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Green at 1176 versus Volkmann at 1028. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Green's knockout artist game against Volkmann's wrestler approach. Green is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Volkmann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkmann throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacob Volkmann over King Green. The model gives Volkmann a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Isaac Vallie-Flagg (1-2) taking on Yves Edwards (10-9). Edwards will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Vallie-Flagg at 939 versus Edwards at 818. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Vallie-Flagg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yves Edwards over Isaac Vallie-Flagg. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Dustin Kimura (2-2) taking on Chico Camus (3-3). Kimura will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Camus carries a modest Elo edge (952 to 907), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camus throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Camus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Kimura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chico Camus over Dustin Kimura. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Camus at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Francisco Rivera (4-5) taking on Edwin Figueroa (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rivera at 972 versus Figueroa at 854. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Rivera's all-rounder game against Figueroa's knockout artist approach. Rivera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Figueroa is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueroa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Rivera over Edwin Figueroa. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.