UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
Saturday, January 26, 2013·Chicago, Illinois, USA·11 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
FlyweightHIT
Demetrious Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Johnson 65%35% Dodson
Over/UnderOver 71%
Under 29%Over 71%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -81(favors Dodson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Dodson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Johnson)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Glover Teixeira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Teixeira 74%26% Jackson
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -95(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.8(favors Teixeira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Teixeira)
LightweightHIT
Anthony Pettis won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pettis 63%37% Cerrone
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -128(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Pettis)
FeatherweightMISS
Ricardo Lamas won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lamas 49%51% Koch
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +64(favors Lamas)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Koch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Lamas)
LightweightMISS
TJ Grant won by KO/TKO (R1)
Grant 43%57% Wiman
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -42(favors Wiman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Wiman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Wiman)
FeatherweightHIT
Clay Guida won by Decision - Split (R3)
Guida 51%49% Hioki
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +252(favors Guida)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Hioki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Hioki)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Pascal Krauss won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Krauss 83%17% Stumpf
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +213(favors Krauss)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Krauss)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Krauss)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Bader won by Submission (R1)
Bader 67%33% Matyushenko
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +79(favors Bader)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Matyushenko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Matyushenko)
HeavyweightHIT
Shawn Jordan won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jordan 58%42% Russow
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -244(favors Russow)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Jordan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.6(favors Russow)
MiddleweightHIT
Rafael Natal won by Submission (R3)
Natal 56%44% Spencer
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +58(favors Natal)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Natal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Natal)
WelterweightMISS
David Mitchell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mitchell 35%65% Thoresen
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -214(favors Thoresen)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Thoresen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Thoresen)