UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-2-1) taking on John Dodson (10-7).

Johnson is rated at 1671 — 296 points above Dodson's 1376. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dodson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Dodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over John Dodson. We're leaning Johnson here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-7) taking on Quinton Jackson (8-5). Teixeira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Teixeira is rated at 1677 — 291 points above Jackson's 1386. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Teixeira's wrestler game against Jackson's striker approach. Teixeira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jackson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Glover Teixeira over Quinton Jackson. We're leaning Teixeira here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Pettis (11-9) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-14). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cerrone.

Pettis is rated at 1579 — 342 points above Cerrone's 1238. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pettis's all-rounder game against Cerrone's knockout artist approach. Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Pettis over Donald Cerrone. The model gives Pettis a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Lamas (11-6) taking on Erik Koch (5-5).

Lamas is rated at 1401 — 347 points above Koch's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Koch throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lamas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Lamas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erik Koch over Ricardo Lamas. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Koch at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features TJ Grant (8-3) taking on Matt Wiman (10-8). Grant will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Grant is rated at 1685 — 690 points above Wiman's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Grant rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wiman throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Wiman over TJ Grant. The model gives Wiman a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-19) taking on Hatsu Hioki (3-5). Hioki is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Guida at 1054 versus Hioki at 907. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hioki is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Guida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hioki throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hioki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over Hatsu Hioki. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Guida at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Pascal Krauss (2-2) taking on Mike Stumpf (0-2).

Krauss is rated at 987 — 185 points above Stumpf's 802. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krauss throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Krauss is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Krauss has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pascal Krauss over Mike Stumpf. The model is firm on this one: Krauss at 83%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (15-5) taking on Vladimir Matyushenko (7-5).

Bader is rated at 1658 — 403 points above Matyushenko's 1255. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matyushenko throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Matyushenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Matyushenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Bader over Vladimir Matyushenko. We're leaning Bader here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shawn Jordan (6-4) taking on Mike Russow (4-2).

Jordan carries a modest Elo edge (1200 to 1137), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Jordan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Jordan's striker game against Russow's wrestler approach. Jordan brings a versatile approach, while Russow looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jordan throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Russow is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Russow has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shawn Jordan over Mike Russow. The model gives Jordan a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Rafael Natal (9-7-1) taking on Sean Spencer (3-5). Natal is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Natal at 1035 versus Spencer at 941. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Natal's wrestler game against Spencer's striker approach. Natal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Spencer brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Natal throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Spencer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Natal over Sean Spencer. The model gives Natal a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features David Mitchell (1-4) taking on Simeon Thoresen (1-2). Thoresen will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mitchell carries a modest Elo edge (936 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thoresen throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Thoresen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Thoresen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Simeon Thoresen over David Mitchell. The model gives Thoresen a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.