UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Saturday, October 26, 2024·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates·13 fights
Model: 12/13(92%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Ilia Topuria won by KO/TKO (R3)
Topuria 72%28% Holloway
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+1.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -45(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Topuria)
MiddleweightHIT
Khamzat Chimaev won by Submission (R1)
Chimaev 74%26% Whittaker
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+7.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +52(favors Chimaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Chimaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Chimaev)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Magomed Ankalaev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ankalaev 69%31% Rakic
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +358(favors Ankalaev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Rakic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Ankalaev)
FeatherweightHIT
Lerone Murphy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Murphy 77%23% Ige
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+3.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +137(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Murphy)
MiddleweightHIT
Shara Magomedov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Magomedov 60%40% Petrosyan
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 61% (-0.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +267(favors Magomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Magomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Petrosyan)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ibo Aslan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aslan 64%36% Cerqueira
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +67(favors Aslan)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.4(favors Aslan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Cerqueira)
WelterweightHIT
Geoff Neal won by KO/TKO (R1)
Neal 71%29% Anjos
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+1.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +79(favors Neal)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Neal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Anjos)
Catch WeightMISS
Mateusz Rebecki won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rebecki 21%79% Orolbai
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONGMarket: 29% (-8.1% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: -250(favors Orolbai)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Rebecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Orolbai)
MiddleweightHIT
Abus Magomedov won by Submission (R3)
Magomedov 58%42% Ferreira
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 59% (-0.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -34(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Magomedov)
Early Prelims
HeavyweightHIT
Kennedy Nzechukwu won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nzechukwu 93%7% Barnett
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
STRONGMarket: 85% (+7.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -35(favors Barnett)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Nzechukwu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Nzechukwu)
FeatherweightHIT
Farid Basharat won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Basharat 87%13% Hugo
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 84% (+2.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +272(favors Basharat)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Hugo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.4(favors Basharat)
MiddleweightHIT
Ismail Naurdiev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Naurdiev 69%31% Silva
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+8.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Naurdiev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Naurdiev)
WelterweightHIT
Rinat Fakhretdinov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fakhretdinov 69%31% Leal
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +587(favors Fakhretdinov)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Fakhretdinov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.4(favors Fakhretdinov)