UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Ilia Topuria (8-0) taking on Max Holloway (22-8). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Holloway.

Topuria is rated at 2094 — 196 points above Holloway's 1897. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Topuria rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Topuria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Topuria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Holloway over Ilia Topuria. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Holloway at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Khamzat Chimaev (8-0) taking on Robert Whittaker (17-6). Chimaev is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Chimaev is rated at 1987 — 459 points above Whittaker's 1528. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Chimaev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Chimaev's submission artist game against Whittaker's striker approach. Chimaev is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Whittaker brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chimaev throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Chimaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khamzat Chimaev over Robert Whittaker. The model gives Chimaev a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1) taking on Aleksandar Rakic (6-4). Rakic will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ankalaev is rated at 1772 — 489 points above Rakic's 1283. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ankalaev's striker game against Rakic's wrestler approach. Ankalaev brings a versatile approach, while Rakic looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rakic throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ankalaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Ankalaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Aleksandar Rakic. We're leaning Ankalaev here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Lerone Murphy (8-0-1) taking on Dan Ige (11-9). Murphy is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Murphy is rated at 1654 — 419 points above Ige's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murphy rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Murphy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Murphy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lerone Murphy over Dan Ige. We're leaning Murphy here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Shara Magomedov (4-1) taking on Armen Petrosyan (3-3).

Magomedov is rated at 1254 — 344 points above Petrosyan's 910. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedov throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrosyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Petrosyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shara Magomedov over Armen Petrosyan. The model gives Magomedov a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ibo Aslan (2-2) taking on Rafael Cerqueira (0-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Aslan at 828 versus Cerqueira at 727. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aslan throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerqueira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cerqueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ibo Aslan over Rafael Cerqueira. The model gives Aslan a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Geoff Neal (8-5) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14). Neal is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Anjos carries a modest Elo edge (1282 to 1247), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Neal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Anjos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Anjos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neal throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Neal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Geoff Neal over Rafael Dos Anjos. The model gives Neal a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features Mateusz Rebecki (4-2) taking on Myktybek Orolbai (3-1). Orolbai is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Orolbai is rated at 1374 — 276 points above Rebecki's 1098. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rebecki throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Orolbai is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Rebecki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Myktybek Orolbai over Mateusz Rebecki. The model gives Orolbai a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Abus Magomedov (4-2) taking on Brunno Ferreira (5-2). Magomedov is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Ferreira carries a modest Elo edge (1344 to 1280), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Magomedov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Magomedov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ferreira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ferreira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Magomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Magomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abus Magomedov over Brunno Ferreira. The model gives Magomedov a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6) taking on Chris Barnett (2-3). Nzechukwu is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Nzechukwu is rated at 1071 — 211 points above Barnett's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nzechukwu's all-rounder game against Barnett's striker approach. Nzechukwu is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Barnett brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nzechukwu throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Nzechukwu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Nzechukwu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Chris Barnett. The model is firm on this one: Nzechukwu at 78%.

The Featherweight matchup features Farid Basharat (5-0) taking on Victor Hugo (1-0).

Basharat is rated at 1459 — 416 points above Hugo's 1043. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Basharat rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hugo throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Basharat is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Hugo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Farid Basharat over Victor Hugo. The model gives Basharat a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ismail Naurdiev (3-3) taking on Bruno Silva (4-6).

Naurdiev is rated at 1183 — 385 points above Silva's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Naurdiev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Naurdiev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ismail Naurdiev over Bruno Silva. The model gives Naurdiev a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rinat Fakhretdinov (5-0-1) taking on Carlos Leal (1-2).

Fakhretdinov is rated at 1483 — 294 points above Leal's 1189. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fakhretdinov throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Fakhretdinov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Leal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rinat Fakhretdinov over Carlos Leal. We're leaning Fakhretdinov here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.