UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson: Predictions & Analysis
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson lands on Friday, December 14, 2012 in Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Pearson vs George SotiropoulosLightweight | Ross Pearson | Confident | 67% |
| Robert Whittaker vs Brad ScottWelterweight | Brad Scott | Toss-up | 53% |
| Norman Parke vs Colin FletcherLightweight | Norman Parke | Toss-up | 53% |
| Hector Lombard vs Rousimar PalharesMiddleweight | Rousimar Palhares | Strong | 76% |
| Chad Mendes vs Yaotzin MezaFeatherweight | Chad Mendes | Confident | 69% |
| Igor Pokrajac vs Joey BeltranLight Heavyweight | Joey Beltran | Lean | 59% |
| Mike Pierce vs Seth BaczynskiWelterweight | Mike Pierce | Toss-up | 55% |
| Ben Alloway vs Manuel RodriguezWelterweight | Manuel Rodriguez | Lean | 61% |
| Mike Wilkinson vs Brendan LoughnaneLightweight | Brendan Loughnane | Lean | 63% |
| Cody Donovan vs Nick PennerLight Heavyweight | Cody Donovan | Lean | 63% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Ross Pearson vs George Sotiropoulos
The Lightweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-12) taking on George Sotiropoulos (7-3). Sotiropoulos is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Sotiropoulos carries a modest Elo edge (918 to 849), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Pearson's striker game against Sotiropoulos's wrestler approach. Pearson brings a versatile approach, while Sotiropoulos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sotiropoulos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ross Pearson over George Sotiropoulos. We're leaning Pearson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Robert Whittaker vs Brad Scott
The Welterweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Brad Scott (3-4). Scott will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Whittaker is rated at 1528 — 644 points above Scott's 884. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Whittaker's striker game against Scott's wrestler approach. Whittaker brings a versatile approach, while Scott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Scott throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Scott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Scott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Brad Scott over Robert Whittaker. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Scott at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Norman Parke vs Colin Fletcher
The Lightweight matchup features Norman Parke (5-2-1) taking on Colin Fletcher (0-1).
Parke is rated at 1101 — 271 points above Fletcher's 830. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Fletcher throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fletcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fletcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Norman Parke over Colin Fletcher. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Parke at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Hector Lombard vs Rousimar Palhares
The Middleweight matchup features Hector Lombard (3-7) taking on Rousimar Palhares (7-4).
Palhares is rated at 1251 — 286 points above Lombard's 964. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Lombard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Palhares is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Palhares the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Palhares throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lombard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Palhares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rousimar Palhares over Hector Lombard. The model is firm on this one: Palhares at 76%.
Chad Mendes vs Yaotzin Meza
The Featherweight matchup features Chad Mendes (9-4) taking on Yaotzin Meza (2-3). Meza is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Mendes is rated at 1377 — 484 points above Meza's 893. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Mendes's striker game against Meza's wrestler approach. Mendes brings a versatile approach, while Meza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mendes throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Meza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chad Mendes over Yaotzin Meza. We're leaning Mendes here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Igor Pokrajac vs Joey Beltran
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Igor Pokrajac (4-7) taking on Joey Beltran (3-5).
Beltran carries a modest Elo edge (815 to 764), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Pokrajac's all-rounder game against Beltran's striker approach. Pokrajac is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Beltran brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Beltran throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Beltran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Beltran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Joey Beltran over Igor Pokrajac. The model gives Beltran a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Mike Pierce vs Seth Baczynski
The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pierce (9-4) taking on Seth Baczynski (5-5). Baczynski is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Pierce is rated at 1171 — 375 points above Baczynski's 796. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Pierce is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Baczynski looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Baczynski the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pierce throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pierce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pierce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mike Pierce over Seth Baczynski. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pierce at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Ben Alloway vs Manuel Rodriguez
The Welterweight matchup features Ben Alloway (1-1) taking on Manuel Rodriguez (0-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Alloway at 898, Rodriguez at 873. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Manuel Rodriguez over Ben Alloway. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Mike Wilkinson vs Brendan Loughnane
The Lightweight matchup features Mike Wilkinson (2-1) taking on Brendan Loughnane (0-0). Loughnane is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Wilkinson is rated at 1099 — 184 points above Loughnane's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Loughnane throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Loughnane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Loughnane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Brendan Loughnane over Mike Wilkinson. The model gives Loughnane a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Cody Donovan vs Nick Penner
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Cody Donovan (1-2) taking on Nick Penner (0-1).
Penner carries a modest Elo edge (814 to 736), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Penner throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Penner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Donovan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cody Donovan over Nick Penner. The model gives Donovan a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.