UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
Saturday, December 8, 2012·Seattle, Washington, USA·11 fights
Model: 9/11(82%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Benson Henderson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Henderson 64%36% Diaz
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +303(favors Henderson)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Henderson)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Alexander Gustafsson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gustafsson 64%36% Rua
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEAN
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +60(favors Gustafsson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Gustafsson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Rua)
WelterweightHIT
Rory MacDonald won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
MacDonald 76%24% Penn
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONG
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -24(favors Penn)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors MacDonald)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors MacDonald)
WelterweightHIT
Matt Brown won by KO/TKO (R2)
Brown 63%37% Swick
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -235(favors Swick)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Brown)
LightweightMISS
Yves Edwards won by KO/TKO (R1)
Edwards 38%62% Stephens
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -119(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Stephens)
BantamweightHIT
Raphael Assuncao won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Assuncao 58%42% Easton
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -150(favors Easton)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Assuncao)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Assuncao)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Ramsey Nijem won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nijem 81%19% Proctor
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONG
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Proctor)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Proctor)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.3(favors Nijem)
LightweightHIT
Daron Cruickshank won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cruickshank 53%47% Martinez
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +136(favors Cruickshank)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Cruickshank)
LightweightMISS
Abel Trujillo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Trujillo 46%54% LeVesseur
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +97(favors Trujillo)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors LeVesseur)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.2(favors LeVesseur)
FeatherweightHIT
Dennis Siver won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Siver 75%25% Phan
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
STRONG
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +488(favors Siver)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Phan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Siver)
BantamweightHIT
Scott Jorgensen won by Submission (R1)
Jorgensen 61%39% Albert
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -83(favors Albert)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Albert)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Jorgensen)