UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le lands on Saturday, November 10, 2012 in Macau, China with 9 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cung Le vs Rich FranklinMiddleweight | Rich Franklin | Confident | 73% |
| Thiago Silva vs Stanislav NedkovLight Heavyweight | Thiago Silva | Confident | 70% |
| Dong Hyun Kim vs Paulo ThiagoWelterweight | Dong Hyun Kim | Confident | 71% |
| Takanori Gomi vs Mac DanzigLightweight | Mac Danzig | Lean | 58% |
| Jon Tuck vs Zhang TiequanLightweight | Jon Tuck | Toss-up | 55% |
| Takeya Mizugaki vs Jeff HouglandBantamweight | Takeya Mizugaki | Lean | 59% |
| Alex Caceres vs Motonobu TezukaBantamweight | Alex Caceres | Lean | 65% |
| John Lineker vs Yasuhiro UrushitaniFlyweight | John Lineker | Strong | 75% |
| Riki Fukuda vs Tom DeBlassMiddleweight | Riki Fukuda | Confident | 71% |
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Bet Now on DraftKingsFight-by-Fight Breakdown
Cung Le vs Rich Franklin
The Middleweight matchup features Cung Le (2-2) taking on Rich Franklin (14-6). Franklin is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Franklin at 1286 versus Le at 1200. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Franklin throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Le is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Franklin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rich Franklin over Cung Le. We're leaning Franklin here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Thiago Silva vs Stanislav Nedkov
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Thiago Silva (7-3) taking on Stanislav Nedkov (1-2). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Silva is rated at 1465 — 650 points above Nedkov's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Nedkov throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Thiago Silva over Stanislav Nedkov. We're leaning Silva here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Dong Hyun Kim vs Paulo Thiago
The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-4) taking on Paulo Thiago (5-8). Kim is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Kim is rated at 1471 — 551 points above Thiago's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
Stylistically this is Kim's striker game against Thiago's wrestler approach. Kim brings a versatile approach, while Thiago looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Thiago has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over Paulo Thiago. We're leaning Kim here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Takanori Gomi vs Mac Danzig
The Lightweight matchup features Takanori Gomi (4-9) taking on Mac Danzig (5-8).
Danzig is rated at 1026 — 182 points above Gomi's 844. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Gomi's striker game against Danzig's wrestler approach. Gomi brings a versatile approach, while Danzig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Danzig throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Danzig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Gomi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mac Danzig over Takanori Gomi. The model gives Danzig a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Jon Tuck vs Zhang Tiequan
The Lightweight matchup features Jon Tuck (4-5) taking on Zhang Tiequan (1-3). Tuck is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Tuck is rated at 1041 — 299 points above Tiequan's 742. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Tiequan throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Tiequan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tuck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jon Tuck over Zhang Tiequan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tuck at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Takeya Mizugaki vs Jeff Hougland
The Bantamweight matchup features Takeya Mizugaki (8-6) taking on Jeff Hougland (1-2).
Mizugaki is rated at 1108 — 230 points above Hougland's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mizugaki throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mizugaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Mizugaki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Takeya Mizugaki over Jeff Hougland. The model gives Mizugaki a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Alex Caceres vs Motonobu Tezuka
The Bantamweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-13) taking on Motonobu Tezuka (0-2).
Caceres is rated at 1264 — 533 points above Tezuka's 731. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Tezuka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alex Caceres over Motonobu Tezuka. The model gives Caceres a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.
John Lineker vs Yasuhiro Urushitani
The Flyweight matchup features John Lineker (12-4) taking on Yasuhiro Urushitani (0-2).
Lineker is rated at 1549 — 819 points above Urushitani's 730. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 8.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Urushitani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Urushitani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: John Lineker over Yasuhiro Urushitani. The model is firm on this one: Lineker at 75%.
Riki Fukuda vs Tom DeBlass
The Middleweight matchup features Riki Fukuda (2-3) taking on Tom DeBlass (0-2).
Fukuda is rated at 982 — 241 points above DeBlass's 741. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Fukuda throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fukuda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Fukuda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Riki Fukuda over Tom DeBlass. We're leaning Fukuda here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.