UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-10) taking on Stipe Miocic (14-4). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Miocic is rated at 1847 — 968 points above Struve's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Struve's submission artist game against Miocic's striker approach. Struve is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Miocic brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stefan Struve over Stipe Miocic. The model gives Struve a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Dan Hardy (5-4) taking on Amir Sadollah (6-4).

Hardy is rated at 1262 — 316 points above Sadollah's 946. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hardy looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sadollah is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hardy the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sadollah throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sadollah is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Sadollah has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Hardy over Amir Sadollah. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hardy at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brad Pickett (5-8) taking on Yves Jabouin (5-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pickett at 834, Jabouin at 845. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Pickett's all-rounder game against Jabouin's striker approach. Pickett is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jabouin brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pickett throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Jabouin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yves Jabouin over Brad Pickett. The model gives Jabouin a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Wiman (10-7) taking on Paul Sass (3-1). Sass is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Sass is rated at 1099 — 231 points above Wiman's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wiman throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Sass has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Wiman over Paul Sass. We're leaning Wiman here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features John Hathaway (7-1) taking on John Maguire (2-2). Hathaway is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Hathaway is rated at 1241 — 343 points above Maguire's 897. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hathaway rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hathaway throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Maguire is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Hathaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Hathaway over John Maguire. The model gives Hathaway a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Che Mills (2-1) taking on Duane Ludwig (4-4). Mills is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Mills is rated at 1155 — 302 points above Ludwig's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ludwig throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ludwig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Ludwig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Che Mills over Duane Ludwig. The model gives Mills a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimi Manuwa (6-5) taking on Kyle Kingsbury (4-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Kingsbury.

Manuwa is rated at 1070 — 235 points above Kingsbury's 835. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Manuwa's all-rounder game against Kingsbury's striker approach. Manuwa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kingsbury brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kingsbury throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kingsbury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Manuwa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Kingsbury over Jimi Manuwa. We're leaning Kingsbury here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Akira Corassani (3-2) taking on Andy Ogle (1-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Corassani at 866 versus Ogle at 724. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ogle throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ogle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ogle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andy Ogle over Akira Corassani. The model gives Ogle a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Tom Watson (2-4).

Tavares carries a modest Elo edge (925 to 868), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Watson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Tom Watson. We're leaning Tavares here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Catch Weight matchup features Gunnar Nelson (10-5) taking on DaMarques Johnson (4-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nelson is rated at 1310 — 469 points above Johnson's 841. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nelson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nelson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: DaMarques Johnson over Gunnar Nelson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Robert Peralta (4-2) taking on Jason Young (1-2).

Peralta is rated at 1039 — 197 points above Young's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Peralta throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Young is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Peralta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Peralta over Jason Young. The model gives Peralta a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.