UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on Ian McCall (2-2-1).

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 561 points above McCall's 1042. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Johnson's wrestler game against McCall's striker approach. Johnson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while McCall brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCall throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. McCall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Ian McCall. We're leaning Johnson here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Erick Silva (7-7) taking on Charlie Brenneman (4-6). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 951 — 234 points above Brenneman's 717. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's wrestler game against Brenneman's striker approach. Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brenneman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 9.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brenneman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Brenneman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charlie Brenneman over Erick Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brenneman at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pyle (10-8) taking on Josh Neer (6-8).

Neer carries a modest Elo edge (872 to 831), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neer throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pyle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Pyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Neer over Mike Pyle. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Neer at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Eddie Wineland (6-9) taking on Scott Jorgensen (4-7). Wineland is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Wineland at 865 versus Jorgensen at 735. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Wineland's striker game against Jorgensen's wrestler approach. Wineland brings a versatile approach, while Jorgensen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jorgensen throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jorgensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Jorgensen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Scott Jorgensen over Eddie Wineland. We're leaning Jorgensen here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pierce (9-4) taking on Carlos Eduardo Rocha (1-1). Rocha is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pierce is rated at 1171 — 171 points above Rocha's 1000. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pierce throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pierce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Rocha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Pierce over Carlos Eduardo Rocha. We're leaning Pierce here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Seth Baczynski (5-5) taking on Lance Benoist (1-2). Baczynski is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Benoist is rated at 1024 — 227 points above Baczynski's 796. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baczynski throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Benoist is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Benoist has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lance Benoist over Seth Baczynski. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Benoist at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Matt Grice (2-4) taking on Leonard Garcia (2-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Grice at 813 versus Garcia at 669. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Grice looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Garcia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Grice the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grice throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Grice is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Grice has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Grice over Leonard Garcia. The model gives Grice a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Dustin Pague (1-4) taking on Jared Papazian (0-2). Pague will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pague at 755, Papazian at 758. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Papazian throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Papazian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Papazian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Papazian over Dustin Pague. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Papazian at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on Justin Salas (3-3). Means is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Means at 872, Salas at 843. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Means's all-rounder game against Salas's striker approach. Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Salas brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Salas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Salas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Means over Justin Salas. The model gives Means a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Buddy Roberts (1-0) taking on Caio Magalhaes (4-2).

Magalhaes carries a modest Elo edge (1099 to 1024), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magalhaes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Magalhaes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Magalhaes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caio Magalhaes over Buddy Roberts. The model gives Magalhaes a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Henry Martinez (1-1) taking on Bernardo Magalhaes (0-1).

Martinez carries a modest Elo edge (899 to 850), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Magalhaes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Henry Martinez over Bernardo Magalhaes. The model gives Martinez a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Pierson (3-2) taking on Jake Hecht (1-1). Pierson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pierson is rated at 1239 — 276 points above Hecht's 963. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hecht throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pierson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pierson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Hecht over Sean Pierson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hecht at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.