UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Carlos Condit (9-10) taking on Nick Diaz (7-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Condit at 1300, Diaz at 1304. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Condit is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Condit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Condit over Nick Diaz. The model gives Condit a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Fabricio Werdum (12-6) taking on Roy Nelson (9-10). Werdum is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Werdum is rated at 1625 — 383 points above Nelson's 1242. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Werdum's wrestler game against Nelson's striker approach. Werdum looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nelson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Werdum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fabricio Werdum over Roy Nelson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Werdum at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-10) taking on Mike Pierce (9-5). Koscheck is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pierce is rated at 1316 — 202 points above Koscheck's 1114. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Koscheck is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pierce looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pierce the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pierce throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pierce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Mike Pierce. The model gives Koscheck a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Renan Barao (9-8) taking on Scott Jorgensen (4-8). Barao will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barao is rated at 973 — 229 points above Jorgensen's 744. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Barao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jorgensen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jorgensen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barao throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jorgensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Barao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renan Barao over Scott Jorgensen. We're leaning Barao here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-12) taking on Clifford Starks (1-2).

Herman is rated at 1139 — 299 points above Starks's 840. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Starks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clifford Starks over Ed Herman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Starks at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-9) taking on Max Holloway (23-9). Poirier will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Holloway at 1901 versus Poirier at 1779. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Poirier's knockout artist game against Holloway's all-rounder approach. Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Holloway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Max Holloway. We're leaning Poirier here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Edwin Figueroa (2-4) taking on Alex Caceres (16-13). Caceres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Caceres is rated at 1264 — 461 points above Figueroa's 804. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Figueroa's knockout artist game against Caceres's all-rounder approach. Figueroa is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Caceres is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Edwin Figueroa. The model gives Caceres a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (17-13) taking on Chris Cope (1-2). Brown will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Brown is rated at 1256 — 505 points above Cope's 751. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cope throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Cope has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Brown over Chris Cope. We're leaning Brown here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Matthew Riddle (7-3) taking on Henry Martinez (1-2). Riddle is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Riddle is rated at 1177 — 305 points above Martinez's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riddle throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Riddle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matthew Riddle over Henry Martinez. We're leaning Riddle here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Rafael Natal (9-7-1) taking on Michael Kuiper (1-3). Natal will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Natal is rated at 1035 — 282 points above Kuiper's 754. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Natal throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Kuiper has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Natal over Michael Kuiper. The model gives Natal a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-9-1) taking on Dan Stittgen (0-2).

Thompson is rated at 1459 — 701 points above Stittgen's 758. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stittgen throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stittgen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stittgen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Stittgen over Stephen Thompson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stittgen at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.