UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Saturday, January 28, 2012·Chicago, Illinois, USA·10 fights
Model: 8/10(80%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightMISS
Rashad Evans won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Evans 48%52% Davis
Over/UnderOver 70%
Under 30%Over 70%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +228(favors Evans)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Davis)
MiddleweightHIT
Chael Sonnen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sonnen 71%29% Bisping
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +78(favors Sonnen)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Bisping)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Sonnen)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Weidman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Weidman 66%34% Maia
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -67(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Weidman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Weidman)
LightweightHIT
Evan Dunham won by KO/TKO (R2)
Dunham 51%49% Lentz
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +53(favors Dunham)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Lentz)
HeavyweightHIT
Mike Russow won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Russow 86%14% Einemo
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +728(favors Russow)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Einemo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Russow)
FeatherweightHIT
Cub Swanson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Swanson 60%40% Roop
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -87(favors Roop)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Roop)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Swanson)
Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R1)
Oliveira 77%23% Wisely
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +110(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Oliveira)
LightweightHIT
Michael Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 62%38% Roller
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Roller)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Roller)
HeavyweightMISS
Lavar Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 44%56% Beltran
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +9(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Beltran)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Beltran)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Camozzi won by Submission (R3)
Camozzi 58%42% Jacoby
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +33(favors Camozzi)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jacoby)