UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Saturday, January 28, 2012·Chicago, Illinois, USA
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightMISS
Rashad Evans won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Evans 40%60% Davis
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +253(favors Evans)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Davis)
MiddleweightHIT
Chael Sonnen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sonnen 57%43% Bisping
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +18(favors Sonnen)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Bisping)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Sonnen)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Weidman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Weidman 71%29% Maia
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -53(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Weidman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Weidman)
LightweightHIT
Evan Dunham won by KO/TKO (R2)
Dunham 53%47% Lentz
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +42(favors Dunham)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Lentz)
HeavyweightHIT
Mike Russow won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Russow 89%11% Einemo
STRONG
→Elo gap: +494(favors Russow)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Einemo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Russow)
FeatherweightHIT
Cub Swanson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Swanson 61%39% Roop
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -55(favors Roop)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Roop)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Swanson)
FeatherweightHIT
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R1)
Oliveira 77%23% Wisely
STRONG
→Elo gap: +87(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Oliveira)
LightweightHIT
Michael Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 69%31% Roller
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -32(favors Roller)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Roller)
HeavyweightMISS
Lavar Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 45%55% Beltran
LEAN
→Elo gap: -7(favors Beltran)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Beltran)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Beltran)
MiddleweightMISS
Chris Camozzi won by Submission (R3)
Camozzi 49%51% Jacoby
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +33(favors Camozzi)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jacoby)