UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Rashad Evans (14-8-1) taking on Phil Davis (9-3). Davis is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Davis is rated at 1549 — 242 points above Evans's 1307. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Evans's striker game against Davis's wrestler approach. Evans brings a versatile approach, while Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Davis over Rashad Evans. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Davis at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Chael Sonnen (7-7) taking on Michael Bisping (20-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bisping at 1615 versus Sonnen at 1528. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Sonnen's wrestler game against Bisping's striker approach. Sonnen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bisping brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sonnen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chael Sonnen over Michael Bisping. We're leaning Sonnen here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Weidman (12-8) taking on Demian Maia (22-11). Weidman will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Maia is rated at 1506 — 246 points above Weidman's 1260. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weidman throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Weidman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Weidman over Demian Maia. We're leaning Weidman here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Evan Dunham (11-9-1) taking on Nik Lentz (14-9-1). Dunham is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lentz at 1262 versus Dunham at 1146. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Dunham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Evan Dunham over Nik Lentz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dunham at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mike Russow (4-2) taking on Jon Olav Einemo (0-2).

Russow is rated at 1137 — 332 points above Einemo's 805. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Einemo throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Russow is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Russow has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Russow over Jon Olav Einemo. The model is firm on this one: Russow at 86%.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (15-10) taking on George Roop (5-8). Roop is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Swanson is rated at 1323 — 362 points above Roop's 961. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roop throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Swanson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Swanson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cub Swanson over George Roop. The model gives Swanson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (25-11) taking on Eric Wisely (0-2).

Oliveira is rated at 1974 — 1272 points above Wisely's 702. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Wisely has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Eric Wisely. The model is firm on this one: Oliveira at 77%.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (16-16) taking on Shane Roller (2-4).

Johnson is rated at 1155 — 269 points above Roller's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Roller's wrestler approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Roller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Roller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Roller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Johnson over Shane Roller. The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Lavar Johnson (2-2) taking on Joey Beltran (3-6). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1015 — 202 points above Beltran's 813. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beltran throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Beltran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joey Beltran over Lavar Johnson. The model gives Beltran a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Camozzi (9-10) taking on Dustin Jacoby (10-6-1).

Jacoby is rated at 1411 — 373 points above Camozzi's 1038. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Camozzi's all-rounder game against Jacoby's striker approach. Camozzi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jacoby brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jacoby is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Dustin Jacoby. The model gives Camozzi a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.