UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Saturday, October 5, 2024·Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
Model Record: 5/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Alex Pereira won by KO/TKO (R4)
Pereira 69%31% Jr.
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +420(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jr.)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Julianna Pena won by Decision - Split (R5)
Pena 38%62% Pennington
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -100(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Pena)
BantamweightMISS
Mario Bautista won by Decision - Split (R3)
Bautista 43%57% Aldo
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -200(favors Aldo)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Bautista)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Bautista)
MiddleweightMISS
Roman Dolidze won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dolidze 40%60% Holland
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +28(favors Dolidze)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Holland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Holland)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Kayla Harrison won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Harrison 58%42% Vieira
LEAN
→Elo gap: -138(favors Vieira)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Harrison)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Harrison)
WelterweightHIT
Joaquin Buckley won by KO/TKO (R3)
Buckley 72%28% Thompson
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +62(favors Buckley)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Buckley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Buckley)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Iasmin Lucindo won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lucindo 66%34% Rodriguez
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +25(favors Lucindo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Lucindo)
LightweightMISS
Alexander Hernandez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hernandez 48%52% Hubbard
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +55(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Hubbard)
MiddleweightMISS
Cesar Almeida won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Almeida 49%51% Potieria
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +90(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Potieria)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Potieria)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Spann won by Submission (R1)
Spann 58%42% Preux
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +89(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Preux)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Spann)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Tecia Pennington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pennington 44%56% Esparza
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -288(favors Esparza)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Esparza)
WelterweightMISS
Court McGee won by Submission (R1)
McGee 49%51% Means
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -112(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors McGee)