UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Alex Pereira (10-2) taking on Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-7). Pereira is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pereira is rated at 2083 — 524 points above Jr.'s 1559. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pereira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jr. brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Pereira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Pereira over Khalil Rountree Jr.. The model is firm on this one: Pereira at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Pereira at 79% implied while our model sees 83% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight championship matchup features Julianna Pena (8-4) taking on Raquel Pennington (13-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pena at 1453, Pennington at 1433. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Pennington has won 6 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Julianna Pena. The model gives Pennington a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 41% for Pena, but our model sees only 37%. That 4-point gap favoring Pennington is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mario Bautista (11-3) taking on Jose Aldo (14-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bautista at 1645 versus Aldo at 1541. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Bautista looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Aldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bautista the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bautista throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Bautista is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Aldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mario Bautista over Jose Aldo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bautista at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 54% for Bautista, but our model sees only 51%. That 3-point gap favoring Aldo is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Dolidze (9-5) taking on Kevin Holland (15-12). Holland will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dolidze is rated at 1555 — 180 points above Holland's 1375. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Holland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Roman Dolidze. The model gives Holland a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 42% for Dolidze, but our model sees only 39%. That 4-point gap favoring Holland is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Kayla Harrison (3-0) taking on Ketlen Vieira (9-5).

Harrison is rated at 1663 — 312 points above Vieira's 1352. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harrison throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Harrison is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Harrison has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kayla Harrison over Ketlen Vieira. The model is firm on this one: Harrison at 88%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Joaquin Buckley (11-5) taking on Stephen Thompson (12-9-1).

Buckley is rated at 1750 — 291 points above Thompson's 1459. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buckley throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Buckley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joaquin Buckley over Stephen Thompson. We're leaning Buckley here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Buckley at 66% implied while our model sees 75% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Iasmin Lucindo (5-2) taking on Marina Rodriguez (7-6-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rodriguez.

Lucindo is rated at 1369 — 221 points above Rodriguez's 1148. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lucindo's all-rounder game against Rodriguez's knockout artist approach. Lucindo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rodriguez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lucindo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Lucindo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Iasmin Lucindo over Marina Rodriguez. We're leaning Lucindo here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lucindo at 62% implied while our model sees 73% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Hernandez (10-7) taking on Austin Hubbard (4-8).

Hernandez is rated at 1446 — 578 points above Hubbard's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Hernandez's all-rounder game against Hubbard's striker approach. Hernandez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hubbard brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hubbard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Hubbard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Austin Hubbard. The model gives Hernandez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hernandez at 50% implied while our model sees 56% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Cesar Almeida (3-2) taking on Ihor Potieria (2-6).

Almeida is rated at 1209 — 389 points above Potieria's 820. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Potieria throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Potieria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Potieria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cesar Almeida over Ihor Potieria. The model is firm on this one: Almeida at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Almeida at 79% implied while our model sees 83% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Spann (9-6) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-13).

Spann is rated at 1216 — 160 points above Preux's 1056. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Spann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Preux throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Spann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Preux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Spann over Ovince Saint Preux. The model gives Spann a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-8) taking on Carla Esparza (10-6). Esparza will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Esparza is rated at 1374 — 160 points above Pennington's 1214. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Esparza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Esparza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carla Esparza over Tecia Pennington. The model gives Esparza a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Court McGee (11-13) taking on Tim Means (15-14). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Means.

McGee carries a modest Elo edge (1111 to 1042), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: McGee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving McGee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Court McGee over Tim Means. The model gives McGee a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.