UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-6-1) taking on Pat Barry (5-7). Kongo is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Kongo is rated at 1267 — 255 points above Barry's 1012. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Pat Barry. We're leaning Kongo here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Charlie Brenneman (4-7) taking on Rick Story (12-7).

Story is rated at 1428 — 686 points above Brenneman's 742. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Brenneman's striker game against Story's wrestler approach. Brenneman brings a versatile approach, while Story looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Brenneman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rick Story over Charlie Brenneman. The model is firm on this one: Story at 76%.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (17-13) taking on John Howard (7-7). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1256 — 233 points above Howard's 1023. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Brown's knockout artist game against Howard's all-rounder approach. Brown is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Howard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Howard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Brown over John Howard. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brown at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Matt Mitrione (9-5) taking on Christian Morecraft (1-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Morecraft.

Mitrione is rated at 1333 — 498 points above Morecraft's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitrione throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Morecraft is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Mitrione over Christian Morecraft. The model gives Mitrione a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Tyson Griffin (8-6) taking on Manvel Gamburyan (6-8).

Gamburyan carries a modest Elo edge (1057 to 1016), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gamburyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gamburyan the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyson Griffin over Manvel Gamburyan. The model is firm on this one: Griffin at 75%.

The Featherweight matchup features Javier Vazquez (1-0) taking on Joe Stevenson (8-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Vazquez at 1180 versus Stevenson at 1067. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stevenson throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Stevenson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Vazquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Javier Vazquez. The model gives Stevenson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (15-12) taking on Curt Warburton (1-2). Warburton is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lauzon at 1099 versus Warburton at 982. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Curt Warburton. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lauzon at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Rich Attonito (3-2) taking on Daniel Roberts (3-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Attonito at 1065, Roberts at 1081. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Attonito throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Attonito has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Roberts over Rich Attonito. We're leaning Roberts here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-9-1) taking on Charles Oliveira (25-11). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1974 — 712 points above Lentz's 1262. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Nik Lentz. We're leaning Oliveira here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Lamas (11-6) taking on Matt Grice (2-5).

Lamas is rated at 1401 — 617 points above Grice's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lamas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Grice looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Grice the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grice throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Grice is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Lamas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Lamas over Matt Grice. We're leaning Lamas here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (16-16) taking on Edward Faaloloto (0-2).

Johnson is rated at 1155 — 436 points above Faaloloto's 719. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Faaloloto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Faaloloto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Johnson over Edward Faaloloto. The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.