The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-9) taking on Ramsey Nijem (5-5).

Ferguson is rated at 1255 — 265 points above Nijem's 990. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ferguson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nijem looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nijem the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nijem throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nijem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nijem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramsey Nijem over Tony Ferguson. The model gives Nijem a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-19) taking on Anthony Pettis (11-9). Pettis is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pettis is rated at 1579 — 526 points above Guida's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Guida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over Anthony Pettis. The model gives Guida a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-12) taking on Tim Credeur (3-2).

Herman carries a modest Elo edge (1139 to 1085), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Credeur throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Credeur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ed Herman over Tim Credeur. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Herman at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kyle Kingsbury (4-5) taking on Fabio Maldonado (5-6). Kingsbury is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Maldonado is rated at 1095 — 226 points above Kingsbury's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Kingsbury brings a versatile approach, while Maldonado is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Maldonado the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maldonado throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kingsbury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Kingsbury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Kingsbury over Fabio Maldonado. The model is firm on this one: Kingsbury at 77%.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Cope (1-2) taking on Chuck O'Neil (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: O'Neil at 873 versus Cope at 751. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Neil throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Neil is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. O'Neil has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chuck O'Neil over Chris Cope. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward O'Neil at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-19) taking on Danny Downes (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Downes.

Stephens is rated at 1112 — 326 points above Downes's 786. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Downes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Danny Downes. We're leaning Stephens here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features George Roop (5-8) taking on Josh Grispi (0-4).

Roop is rated at 961 — 373 points above Grispi's 588. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roop throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Grispi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Roop has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Grispi over George Roop. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grispi at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Shamar Bailey (1-2) taking on Ryan McGillivray (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Bailey at 879, McGillivray at 873. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGillivray throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McGillivray is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. McGillivray has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan McGillivray over Shamar Bailey. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McGillivray at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Clay Harvison (1-2) taking on Justin Edwards (2-5). Harvison is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Edwards at 856 versus Harvison at 719. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Edwards over Clay Harvison. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Scott Jorgensen (4-8) taking on Ken Stone (2-2). Stone is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Stone is rated at 969 — 225 points above Jorgensen's 744. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stone throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ken Stone over Scott Jorgensen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stone at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Reuben Duran (1-3) taking on Francisco Rivera (4-6).

Rivera is rated at 1020 — 275 points above Duran's 745. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duran throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Reuben Duran over Francisco Rivera. We're leaning Duran here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.