The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Ramsey Nijem (5-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ferguson at 1065 versus Nijem at 944. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Ferguson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nijem looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nijem the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nijem throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nijem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nijem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramsey Nijem over Tony Ferguson. The model gives Nijem a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Anthony Pettis (10-9). Pettis is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pettis is rated at 1512 — 586 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Guida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over Anthony Pettis. The model gives Guida a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-11) taking on Tim Credeur (3-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Herman at 1045, Credeur at 1018. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Credeur throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Credeur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ed Herman over Tim Credeur. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Herman at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kyle Kingsbury (4-4) taking on Fabio Maldonado (5-5). Kingsbury is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Maldonado is rated at 1043 — 208 points above Kingsbury's 835. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Kingsbury brings a versatile approach, while Maldonado is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Maldonado the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maldonado throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kingsbury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Kingsbury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Kingsbury over Fabio Maldonado. The model gives Kingsbury a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Cope (1-1) taking on Chuck O'Neil (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: O'Neil at 915 versus Cope at 812. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Neil throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Neil is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. O'Neil has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chuck O'Neil over Chris Cope. The model gives O'Neil a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-18) taking on Danny Downes (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Downes.

Stephens carries a modest Elo edge (941 to 864), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Downes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Danny Downes. We're leaning Stephens here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features George Roop (5-7) taking on Josh Grispi (0-3).

Roop is rated at 881 — 193 points above Grispi's 687. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roop throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Grispi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Roop has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Grispi over George Roop. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grispi at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Shamar Bailey (1-1) taking on Ryan McGillivray (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Bailey at 897, McGillivray at 915. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGillivray throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McGillivray is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. McGillivray has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan McGillivray over Shamar Bailey. The model gives McGillivray a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Clay Harvison (1-1) taking on Justin Edwards (2-4). Harvison is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Harvison at 805, Edwards at 798. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Edwards over Clay Harvison. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Scott Jorgensen (4-7) taking on Ken Stone (2-1). Stone is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Stone is rated at 959 — 223 points above Jorgensen's 735. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stone throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ken Stone over Scott Jorgensen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stone at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Reuben Duran (1-2) taking on Francisco Rivera (4-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rivera at 972 versus Duran at 824. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duran throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Reuben Duran over Francisco Rivera. The model gives Duran a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.