UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
Saturday, February 26, 2011·Sydney, New South Wales, Australia·12 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
Welterweight
Penn 42%58% Fitch
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -64(favors Fitch)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Fitch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Fitch)
MiddleweightHIT
Michael Bisping won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bisping 68%32% Rivera
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -1(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Bisping)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Rivera)
LightweightMISS
Dennis Siver won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Siver 48%52% Sotiropoulos
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -260(favors Sotiropoulos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Siver)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Sotiropoulos)
WelterweightMISS
Brian Ebersole won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ebersole 49%51% Lytle
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -372(favors Lytle)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.5(favors Lytle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lytle)
MiddleweightHIT
Kyle Noke won by Submission (R1)
Noke 53%47% Camozzi
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +52(favors Noke)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Noke)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Noke)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Ross Pearson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pearson 60%40% Fisher
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -117(favors Fisher)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Pearson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Fisher)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Alexander Gustafsson won by Submission (R1)
Gustafsson 66%34% Huna
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +125(favors Gustafsson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Gustafsson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.3(favors Huna)
MiddleweightMISS
Nick Ring won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ring 43%57% Fukuda
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Fukuda)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Fukuda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Fukuda)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Anthony Perosh won by Submission (R1)
Perosh 67%33% Blackledge
Over/UnderUnder 69%
Under 69%Over 31%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -257(favors Blackledge)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Perosh)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Perosh)
Early Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Zhang Tiequan won by Submission (R1)
Tiequan 63%37% Reinhardt
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +30(favors Tiequan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Reinhardt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Reinhardt)
HeavyweightHIT
Mark Hunt won by KO/TKO (R2)
Hunt 73%27% Tuchscherer
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -19(favors Tuchscherer)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Hunt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +13.5(favors Hunt)
LightweightHIT
Curt Warburton won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Warburton 75%25% Jewtuszko
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -57(favors Jewtuszko)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Warburton)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Warburton)