UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features BJ Penn (12-12-2) taking on Jon Fitch (14-2-1). Fitch is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Fitch is rated at 1398 — 460 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Fitch looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Fitch the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fitch throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Fitch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Penn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Fitch over BJ Penn. The model gives Fitch a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Jorge Rivera (7-7).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 348 points above Rivera's 1174. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bisping looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rivera is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Bisping the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Bisping over Jorge Rivera. The model is firm on this one: Bisping at 76%.

The Lightweight matchup features Dennis Siver (11-8) taking on George Sotiropoulos (7-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Sotiropoulos.

Siver is rated at 1214 — 296 points above Sotiropoulos's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Siver's knockout artist game against Sotiropoulos's wrestler approach. Siver is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sotiropoulos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Siver throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sotiropoulos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Sotiropoulos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: George Sotiropoulos over Dennis Siver. We're leaning Sotiropoulos here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Brian Ebersole (5-2) taking on Chris Lytle (9-10). Ebersole will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lytle is rated at 1330 — 265 points above Ebersole's 1065. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ebersole brings a versatile approach, while Lytle is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Lytle the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lytle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ebersole has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Lytle over Brian Ebersole. The model gives Lytle a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Kyle Noke (6-5) taking on Chris Camozzi (9-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Camozzi at 986 versus Noke at 869. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Noke throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Noke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Noke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Noke over Chris Camozzi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Noke at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-12) taking on Spencer Fisher (9-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pearson at 849, Fisher at 876. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Pearson's striker game against Fisher's all-rounder approach. Pearson brings a versatile approach, while Fisher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fisher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ross Pearson over Spencer Fisher. We're leaning Pearson here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Gustafsson (10-7) taking on James Te Huna (5-4). Gustafsson is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gustafsson is rated at 1169 — 327 points above Huna's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gustafsson's all-rounder game against Huna's striker approach. Gustafsson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Huna brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gustafsson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Huna is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Huna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Gustafsson over James Te Huna. The model gives Gustafsson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Nick Ring (3-2) taking on Riki Fukuda (2-2).

Ring carries a modest Elo edge (1015 to 967), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fukuda throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fukuda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fukuda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Riki Fukuda over Nick Ring. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fukuda at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Perosh (5-6) taking on Tom Blackledge (0-0).

Perosh carries a modest Elo edge (872 to 829), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perosh throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Perosh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Blackledge has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Perosh over Tom Blackledge. The model gives Perosh a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Zhang Tiequan (1-2) taking on Jason Reinhardt (0-2).

Tiequan carries a modest Elo edge (819 to 755), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reinhardt throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Reinhardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tiequan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zhang Tiequan over Jason Reinhardt. The model gives Tiequan a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mark Hunt (8-7-1) taking on Chris Tuchscherer (1-2). Tuchscherer is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Hunt is rated at 1169 — 410 points above Tuchscherer's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hunt throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hunt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 13.5 more per 15 minutes. Hunt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Hunt over Chris Tuchscherer. We're leaning Hunt here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Curt Warburton (1-1) taking on Maciej Jewtuszko (0-0).

Warburton carries a modest Elo edge (973 to 900), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Warburton throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Warburton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Jewtuszko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Curt Warburton over Maciej Jewtuszko. We're leaning Warburton here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.