The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Jonathan Brookins (2-2) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15).

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 261 points above Brookins's 984. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Johnson over Jonathan Brookins. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Stephan Bonnar (8-6) taking on Igor Pokrajac (4-7). Bonnar is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Bonnar is rated at 1278 — 514 points above Pokrajac's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pokrajac is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bonnar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonnar throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pokrajac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Pokrajac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephan Bonnar over Igor Pokrajac. We're leaning Bonnar here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Kendall Grove (7-5). Grove is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Maia is rated at 1371 — 377 points above Grove's 994. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Grove is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Maia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grove throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Kendall Grove. We're leaning Maia here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Rick Story (12-6) taking on Johny Hendricks (13-7).

Story is rated at 1358 — 290 points above Hendricks's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Story's wrestler game against Hendricks's striker approach. Story looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hendricks brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rick Story over Johny Hendricks. The model gives Story a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Leonard Garcia (2-6) taking on Nam Phan (2-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Garcia.

Phan is rated at 859 — 190 points above Garcia's 669. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Garcia's all-rounder game against Phan's striker approach. Garcia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Phan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Phan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Phan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nam Phan over Leonard Garcia. We're leaning Phan here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Cody McKenzie (3-3) taking on Aaron Wilkinson (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — McKenzie at 871, Wilkinson at 890. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilkinson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wilkinson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wilkinson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody McKenzie over Aaron Wilkinson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McKenzie at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Ian Loveland (1-1) taking on Tyler Toner (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Loveland at 902, Toner at 915. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Toner throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Toner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Toner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyler Toner over Ian Loveland. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Toner at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Kyle Watson (1-0) taking on Sako Chivitchian (0-0).

Watson carries a modest Elo edge (949 to 915), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chivitchian throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Chivitchian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Chivitchian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sako Chivitchian over Kyle Watson. The model gives Chivitchian a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Nick Pace (1-1) taking on Will Campuzano (0-3). Campuzano is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pace is rated at 930 — 166 points above Campuzano's 763. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Campuzano throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Campuzano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Campuzano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Will Campuzano over Nick Pace. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Campuzano at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Pablo Garza (3-2) taking on Fredson Paixao (0-0). Garza is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Garza carries a modest Elo edge (938 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Paixao throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Paixao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Paixao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pablo Garza over Fredson Paixao. We're leaning Garza here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features David Branch (4-4) taking on Rich Attonito (3-1). Branch is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Branch is rated at 1136 — 151 points above Attonito's 985. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Attonito throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Branch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Branch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Branch over Rich Attonito. The model is firm on this one: Branch at 76%.