UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
Saturday, September 7, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 7/12(58%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Sean Brady won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Brady 69%31% Burns
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+5.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Brady)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Brady)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Natalia Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 86%14% Andrade
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 71% (+14.6% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +8(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Silva)
FeatherweightHIT
Steve Garcia won by KO/TKO (R1)
Garcia 66%34% Nelson
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+0.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Garcia)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Garcia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Nelson)
BantamweightHIT
Cody Durden won by Submission (R2)
Durden 60%40% Schnell
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -22(favors Schnell)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Durden)
LightweightMISS
Yanal Ashmouz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ashmouz 34%66% Peek
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +24(favors Ashmouz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Peek)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Peek)
LightweightMISS
Chris Padilla won by KO/TKO (R2)
Padilla 49%51% Rongzhu
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +161(favors Padilla)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Rongzhu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.3(favors Padilla)
Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Isaac Dulgarian won by Submission (R2)
Dulgarian 74%26% Marotte
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +328(favors Dulgarian)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Marotte)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.1(favors Dulgarian)
FlyweightHIT
Andre Lima won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lima 55%45% Santos
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +29(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Lima)
FeatherweightMISS
Gabriel Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 39%61% Yizha
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -68(favors Yizha)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Yizha)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Jaqueline Amorim won by Submission (R1)
Amorim 57%43% Demopoulos
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEAN
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +157(favors Amorim)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Demopoulos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Amorim)
MiddleweightMISS
Andre Petroski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Petroski 47%53% Budka
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +394(favors Petroski)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Petroski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Budka)
FeatherweightMISS
Nathan Fletcher won by Submission (R2)
Fletcher 47%53% Ramaska
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Ramaska)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Ramaska)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ramaska)