UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Sean Brady (8-2) taking on Gilbert Burns (15-9).

Brady is rated at 1755 — 213 points above Burns's 1542. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brady looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Burns is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brady the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brady is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Brady has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Brady over Gilbert Burns. We're leaning Brady here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Brady at 63% implied while our model sees 69% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Natalia Silva (8-0) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-13). Silva is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1703 — 463 points above Andrade's 1240. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Silva rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Silva brings a versatile approach, while Andrade is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Andrade the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Natalia Silva over Jessica Andrade. The model is firm on this one: Silva at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Silva at 71% implied while our model sees 86% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Steve Garcia (8-2) taking on Kyle Nelson (5-6-1). Garcia will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Garcia is rated at 1656 — 453 points above Nelson's 1203. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Garcia rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Garcia is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Nelson brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Garcia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Garcia over Kyle Nelson. We're leaning Garcia here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Durden (6-8-1) taking on Matt Schnell (7-8). Schnell will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Schnell carries a modest Elo edge (989 to 915), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Durden looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Schnell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Durden the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Durden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Durden over Matt Schnell. The model gives Durden a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Yanal Ashmouz (2-2) taking on Trevor Peek (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ashmouz at 1000 versus Peek at 920. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Peek throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Peek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Ashmouz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevor Peek over Yanal Ashmouz. We're leaning Peek here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Padilla (4-0) taking on Rongzhu (3-3). Padilla will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Padilla is rated at 1399 — 330 points above Rongzhu's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Padilla rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rongzhu throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Padilla is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.3 more per 15 minutes. Padilla has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rongzhu over Chris Padilla. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rongzhu at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Isaac Dulgarian (2-2) taking on Brendon Marotte (0-2).

Dulgarian is rated at 959 — 179 points above Marotte's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marotte throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dulgarian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.1 more per 15 minutes. Dulgarian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Isaac Dulgarian over Brendon Marotte. We're leaning Dulgarian here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Andre Lima (4-0) taking on Felipe dos Santos (1-3). Santos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lima is rated at 1286 — 399 points above Santos's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lima rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Lima over Felipe dos Santos. The model gives Lima a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Gabriel Santos (2-2) taking on Yizha (1-3).

Santos is rated at 1204 — 265 points above Yizha's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Yizha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Yizha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yizha over Gabriel Santos. The model gives Yizha a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jaqueline Amorim (4-2) taking on Vanessa Demopoulos (5-5). Amorim will look to use a 9-inch reach edge to control distance.

Amorim is rated at 1282 — 374 points above Demopoulos's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Amorim rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Amorim is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Demopoulos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Amorim the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Demopoulos throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Amorim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Amorim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jaqueline Amorim over Vanessa Demopoulos. The model gives Amorim a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Andre Petroski (8-4) taking on Dylan Budka (0-3).

Petroski is rated at 1060 — 333 points above Budka's 728. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petroski throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Budka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Petroski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dylan Budka over Andre Petroski. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Budka at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Nathan Fletcher (1-2) taking on Zygimantas Ramaska (0-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Ramaska.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Fletcher at 856, Ramaska at 834. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramaska throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramaska is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ramaska has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zygimantas Ramaska over Nathan Fletcher. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ramaska at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.