UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Saturday, October 23, 2010·Anaheim, California, USA
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Cain Velasquez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Velasquez 60%40% Lesnar
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -72(favors Lesnar)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Velasquez)
WelterweightMISS
Jake Shields won by Decision - Split (R3)
Shields 24%76% Kampmann
STRONG
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -274(favors Kampmann)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Kampmann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Kampmann)
WelterweightHIT
Diego Sanchez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sanchez 53%47% Thiago
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +26(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Thiago)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Matt Hamill won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hamill 52%48% Ortiz
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +78(favors Hamill)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Hamill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Ortiz)
HeavyweightHIT
Brendan Schaub won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Schaub 72%28% Gonzaga
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Schaub)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Schaub)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.3(favors Gonzaga)
MiddleweightHIT
Court McGee won by Submission (R3)
McGee 75%25% Jensen
STRONG
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +148(favors McGee)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Jensen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors McGee)
MiddleweightHIT
Tom Lawlor won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lawlor 59%41% Cote
LEAN
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -176(favors Cote)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Lawlor)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Lawlor)
WelterweightMISS
Daniel Roberts won by Submission (R1)
Roberts 48%52% Guymon
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -9(favors Guymon)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Guymon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Roberts)
LightweightHIT
Sam Stout won by Decision - Split (R3)
Stout 63%37% Taylor
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +107(favors Stout)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Stout)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Taylor)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Camozzi won by Decision - Split (R3)
Camozzi 74%26% Yang
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +85(favors Camozzi)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Yang)
HeavyweightHIT
Jon Madsen won by KO/TKO (R1)
Madsen 75%25% Yvel
STRONG
→Elo gap: +276(favors Madsen)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Madsen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Madsen)