UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-3) taking on Brock Lesnar (4-3). Lesnar is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Velasquez is rated at 1747 — 415 points above Lesnar's 1332. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Velasquez's knockout artist game against Lesnar's wrestler approach. Velasquez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Lesnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Brock Lesnar. We're leaning Velasquez here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Shields (4-3) taking on Martin Kampmann (11-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kampmann at 1437 versus Shields at 1327. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Shields's striker game against Kampmann's submission artist approach. Shields brings a versatile approach, while Kampmann is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kampmann throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kampmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Shields has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Martin Kampmann over Jake Shields. We're leaning Kampmann here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-13) taking on Paulo Thiago (5-8).

Sanchez is rated at 1216 — 297 points above Thiago's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's all-rounder game against Thiago's knockout artist approach. Sanchez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Thiago is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Thiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Thiago has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Sanchez over Paulo Thiago. The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Matt Hamill (10-5) taking on Tito Ortiz (15-11-1).

Hamill carries a modest Elo edge (1280 to 1233), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Hamill's striker game against Ortiz's all-rounder approach. Hamill brings a versatile approach, while Ortiz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamill throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Hamill over Tito Ortiz. The model gives Hamill a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brendan Schaub (6-5) taking on Gabriel Gonzaga (12-10). Schaub is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Schaub is rated at 1225 — 153 points above Gonzaga's 1072. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Schaub's wrestler game against Gonzaga's knockout artist approach. Schaub looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gonzaga is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schaub throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Schaub has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Schaub over Gabriel Gonzaga. We're leaning Schaub here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Court McGee (11-13) taking on Ryan Jensen (2-6).

McGee is rated at 1111 — 323 points above Jensen's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jensen throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Court McGee over Ryan Jensen. The model gives McGee a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Tom Lawlor (6-5) taking on Patrick Cote (10-11).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lawlor at 1245, Cote at 1256. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Lawlor is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Cote is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lawlor the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawlor throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawlor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Lawlor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tom Lawlor over Patrick Cote. The model gives Lawlor a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Roberts (3-4) taking on Mike Guymon (1-3).

Roberts is rated at 1081 — 330 points above Guymon's 751. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guymon throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Roberts over Mike Guymon. The model gives Roberts a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Sam Stout (9-11) taking on Paul Taylor (4-5). Taylor is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Taylor is rated at 1070 — 195 points above Stout's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Taylor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Stout has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Stout over Paul Taylor. We're leaning Stout here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Camozzi (9-10) taking on Dongi Yang (2-3). Camozzi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Camozzi at 1038, Yang at 1043. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Yang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Dongi Yang. The model is firm on this one: Camozzi at 75%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jon Madsen (4-1) taking on Gilbert Yvel (0-3). Yvel is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Madsen is rated at 1191 — 380 points above Yvel's 810. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Madsen rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madsen throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Madsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Madsen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Madsen over Gilbert Yvel. The model is firm on this one: Madsen at 81%.