UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-2) taking on Brock Lesnar (4-3). Lesnar is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Velasquez is rated at 1589 — 397 points above Lesnar's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Velasquez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Lesnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Lesnar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Brock Lesnar. The model gives Velasquez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Shields (4-2) taking on Martin Kampmann (11-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kampmann at 1358 versus Shields at 1232. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Shields's striker game against Kampmann's submission artist approach. Shields brings a versatile approach, while Kampmann is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kampmann throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kampmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Shields has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Martin Kampmann over Jake Shields. The model is firm on this one: Kampmann at 76%.

The Welterweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Paulo Thiago (5-7).

Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 328 points above Thiago's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's all-rounder game against Thiago's knockout artist approach. Sanchez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Thiago is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Thiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Thiago has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Sanchez over Paulo Thiago. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sanchez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Matt Hamill (10-4) taking on Tito Ortiz (15-10-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hamill at 1150 versus Ortiz at 1059. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Hamill's striker game against Ortiz's all-rounder approach. Hamill brings a versatile approach, while Ortiz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamill throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Hamill over Tito Ortiz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hamill at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brendan Schaub (6-4) taking on Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9). Schaub is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Schaub is rated at 1154 — 187 points above Gonzaga's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Schaub looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gonzaga is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Schaub the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schaub throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Schaub has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Schaub over Gabriel Gonzaga. We're leaning Schaub here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Court McGee (11-12) taking on Ryan Jensen (2-5).

McGee is rated at 1037 — 278 points above Jensen's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jensen throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Court McGee over Ryan Jensen. The model is firm on this one: McGee at 75%.

The Middleweight matchup features Tom Lawlor (6-4) taking on Patrick Cote (10-10).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lawlor at 1205, Cote at 1221. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Lawlor is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Cote is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lawlor the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawlor throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawlor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Lawlor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tom Lawlor over Patrick Cote. The model gives Lawlor a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Roberts (3-3) taking on Mike Guymon (1-2).

Roberts is rated at 974 — 151 points above Guymon's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guymon throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Guymon over Daniel Roberts. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Guymon at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Sam Stout (9-10) taking on Paul Taylor (3-5). Taylor is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Taylor is rated at 1057 — 300 points above Stout's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Taylor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Stout has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Stout over Paul Taylor. The model gives Stout a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Camozzi (9-9) taking on Dongi Yang (1-3). Camozzi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Yang at 1066 versus Camozzi at 986. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Yang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Dongi Yang. We're leaning Camozzi here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jon Madsen (4-0) taking on Gilbert Yvel (0-2). Yvel is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Madsen is rated at 1098 — 254 points above Yvel's 844. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Madsen rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madsen throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Madsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Madsen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Madsen over Gilbert Yvel. The model is firm on this one: Madsen at 75%.