UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
Saturday, September 25, 2010·Indianapolis, Indiana, USA·11 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightMISS
Frank Mir won by KO/TKO (R3)
Mir 45%55% Filipovic
Over/UnderUnder 64%
Under 64%Over 36%
LEAN
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +79(favors Mir)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Mir)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Mir)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Bader won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bader 66%34% Nogueira
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -8(favors Nogueira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Bader)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Bader)
WelterweightHIT
Chris Lytle won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lytle 66%34% Serra
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -33(favors Serra)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Lytle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Serra)
LightweightMISS
Sean Sherk won by Decision - Split (R3)
Sherk 31%69% Dunham
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -227(favors Dunham)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Sherk)
LightweightMISS
Melvin Guillard won by Decision - Split (R3)
Guillard 47%53% Stephens
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Stephens)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Guillard)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
CB Dollaway won by Submission (R1)
Dollaway 73%27% Doerksen
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +213(favors Dollaway)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Dollaway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Dollaway)
HeavyweightHIT
Matt Mitrione won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mitrione 61%39% Beltran
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +98(favors Mitrione)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Beltran)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Beltran)
LightweightHIT
Thiago Tavares won by Submission (R1)
Tavares 64%36% Audinwood
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +68(favors Tavares)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Tavares)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Tavares)
LightweightHIT
Waylon Lowe won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lowe 61%39% Lopez
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -42(favors Lopez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Lopez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Lowe)
Early Prelims
WelterweightHIT
TJ Grant won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Grant 80%20% Paulino
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +158(favors Grant)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Grant)
HeavyweightHIT
Sean McCorkle won by Submission (R1)
McCorkle 63%37% Hunt
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Hunt)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Hunt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hunt)