UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
Saturday, September 25, 2010·Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightMISS
Frank Mir won by KO/TKO (R3)
Mir 46%54% Filipovic
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +9(favors Mir)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Mir)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Mir)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Bader won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bader 65%35% Nogueira
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +24(favors Bader)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Bader)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Bader)
WelterweightHIT
Chris Lytle won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lytle 67%33% Serra
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +65(favors Lytle)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Lytle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Serra)
LightweightMISS
Sean Sherk won by Decision - Split (R3)
Sherk 42%58% Dunham
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -110(favors Dunham)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Sherk)
LightweightMISS
Melvin Guillard won by Decision - Split (R3)
Guillard 38%62% Stephens
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Stephens)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Stephens)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Guillard)
MiddleweightHIT
CB Dollaway won by Submission (R1)
Dollaway 81%19% Doerksen
STRONG
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +224(favors Dollaway)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Dollaway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Dollaway)
HeavyweightHIT
Matt Mitrione won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mitrione 55%45% Beltran
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +67(favors Mitrione)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Beltran)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Beltran)
LightweightHIT
Thiago Tavares won by Submission (R1)
Tavares 71%29% Audinwood
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +43(favors Tavares)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Tavares)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Tavares)
LightweightHIT
Waylon Lowe won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lowe 50%50% Lopez
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -22(favors Lopez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Lopez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Lowe)
WelterweightHIT
TJ Grant won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Grant 82%18% Paulino
STRONG
→Elo gap: +117(favors Grant)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Grant)
HeavyweightHIT
Sean McCorkle won by Submission (R1)
McCorkle 66%34% Hunt
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -0(favors Hunt)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Hunt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hunt)