UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Chael Sonnen (7-6). Silva will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sonnen is rated at 1430 — 276 points above Silva's 1154. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sonnen brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sonnen throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sonnen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anderson Silva over Chael Sonnen. We're leaning Silva here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Jon Fitch (14-2-1) taking on Thiago Alves (15-11). Fitch is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Fitch is rated at 1398 — 497 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Fitch's wrestler game against Alves's striker approach. Fitch looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alves brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fitch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Fitch over Thiago Alves. The model gives Fitch a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14).

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 356 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over Rafael Dos Anjos. The model gives Guida a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Ricardo Almeida (6-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Almeida.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hughes at 1273 versus Almeida at 1189. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Almeida over Matt Hughes. The model gives Almeida a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Roy Nelson (9-9). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Santos carries a modest Elo edge (1191 to 1129), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Roy Nelson. We're leaning Santos here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Rick Story (12-6) taking on Dustin Hazelett (5-4). Hazelett is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Story is rated at 1358 — 385 points above Hazelett's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Story is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hazelett is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hazelett the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Story is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rick Story over Dustin Hazelett. The model gives Story a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Phil Davis (9-2) taking on Rodney Wallace (0-2). Davis is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Davis is rated at 1427 — 615 points above Wallace's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Wallace is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Davis over Rodney Wallace. The model is firm on this one: Davis at 78%.

The Welterweight matchup features Johny Hendricks (13-7) taking on Charlie Brenneman (4-6).

Hendricks is rated at 1068 — 351 points above Brenneman's 717. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Brenneman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johny Hendricks over Charlie Brenneman. The model gives Hendricks a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tim Boetsch (12-11) taking on Todd Brown (0-1).

Boetsch is rated at 1174 — 370 points above Brown's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Boetsch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Boetsch over Todd Brown. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Boetsch at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-10) taking on Christian Morecraft (1-2). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Struve at 878, Morecraft at 858. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Struve throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Struve is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Morecraft has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stefan Struve over Christian Morecraft. We're leaning Struve here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Dennis Hallman (3-5) taking on Ben Saunders (9-9). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Hallman is rated at 1203 — 391 points above Saunders's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hallman's wrestler game against Saunders's knockout artist approach. Hallman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Saunders is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saunders throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hallman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Saunders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Hallman over Ben Saunders. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hallman at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.