UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
Saturday, July 3, 2010·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 10/11(91%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Brock Lesnar won by Submission (R2)
Lesnar 74%26% Carwin
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Carwin)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.4(favors Carwin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Lesnar)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Leben won by Submission (R3)
Leben 68%32% Akiyama
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +168(favors Leben)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Akiyama)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Akiyama)
WelterweightMISS
Chris Lytle won by Submission (R2)
Lytle 48%52% Brown
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +50(favors Lytle)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Lytle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Brown)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Stephan Bonnar won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bonnar 51%49% Soszynski
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -278(favors Soszynski)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Soszynski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Soszynski)
LightweightHIT
George Sotiropoulos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sotiropoulos 66%34% Pellegrino
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +104(favors Sotiropoulos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Pellegrino)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Sotiropoulos)
Prelims
HeavyweightHIT
Brendan Schaub won by KO/TKO (R1)
Schaub 68%32% Tuchscherer
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +1(favors Schaub)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.8(favors Schaub)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Tuchscherer)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ricardo Romero won by Submission (R2)
Romero 57%43% Petruzelli
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +180(favors Romero)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Petruzelli)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Petruzelli)
MiddleweightHIT
Kendall Grove won by Decision - Split (R3)
Grove 54%46% Reljic
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -59(favors Reljic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Grove)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Reljic)
MiddleweightHIT
Gerald Harris won by KO/TKO (R3)
Harris 61%39% Branch
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +287(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Harris)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Harris)
Early Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Daniel Roberts won by Decision - Split (R3)
Roberts 76%24% Petz
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONG
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -16(favors Petz)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Roberts)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors Roberts)
HeavyweightHIT
Jon Madsen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Madsen 60%40% Vemola
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +136(favors Madsen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Madsen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Madsen)