UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
Saturday, July 3, 2010·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Brock Lesnar won by Submission (R2)
Lesnar 67%33% Carwin
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -36(favors Carwin)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.4(favors Carwin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Lesnar)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Leben won by Submission (R3)
Leben 55%45% Akiyama
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +189(favors Leben)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Akiyama)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Akiyama)
WelterweightHIT
Chris Lytle won by Submission (R2)
Lytle 57%43% Brown
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +104(favors Lytle)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Lytle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Brown)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Stephan Bonnar won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bonnar 35%65% Soszynski
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -295(favors Soszynski)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Soszynski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Soszynski)
LightweightHIT
George Sotiropoulos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sotiropoulos 58%42% Pellegrino
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +67(favors Sotiropoulos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Pellegrino)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Sotiropoulos)
HeavyweightHIT
Brendan Schaub won by KO/TKO (R1)
Schaub 70%30% Tuchscherer
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +1(favors Schaub)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.8(favors Schaub)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Tuchscherer)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ricardo Romero won by Submission (R2)
Romero 47%53% Petruzelli
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +139(favors Romero)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Petruzelli)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Petruzelli)
MiddleweightHIT
Kendall Grove won by Decision - Split (R3)
Grove 55%45% Reljic
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -79(favors Reljic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Grove)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Reljic)
MiddleweightHIT
Gerald Harris won by KO/TKO (R3)
Harris 61%39% Branch
LEAN
→Elo gap: +210(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Harris)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Harris)
WelterweightHIT
Daniel Roberts won by Decision - Split (R3)
Roberts 73%27% Petz
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +1(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Roberts)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors Roberts)
HeavyweightHIT
Jon Madsen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Madsen 53%47% Vemola
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +103(favors Madsen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Madsen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Madsen)