UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Brock Lesnar (4-3) taking on Shane Carwin (4-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Carwin at 1475 versus Lesnar at 1332. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lesnar's wrestler game against Carwin's striker approach. Lesnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Carwin brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carwin throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lesnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Carwin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brock Lesnar over Shane Carwin. We're leaning Lesnar here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-10) taking on Yoshihiro Akiyama (2-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Leben at 995, Akiyama at 1015. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Akiyama throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Akiyama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Leben has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Leben over Yoshihiro Akiyama. We're leaning Leben here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Lytle (10-10) taking on Matt Brown (17-13). Brown will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lytle at 1349 versus Brown at 1256. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lytle's wrestler game against Brown's knockout artist approach. Lytle looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brown is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Lytle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Brown over Chris Lytle. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brown at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Stephan Bonnar (8-7) taking on Krzysztof Soszynski (6-3). Bonnar is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Bonnar is rated at 1244 — 264 points above Soszynski's 980. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soszynski throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Soszynski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Soszynski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephan Bonnar over Krzysztof Soszynski. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bonnar at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features George Sotiropoulos (7-4) taking on Kurt Pellegrino (7-5).

Pellegrino is rated at 1306 — 341 points above Sotiropoulos's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sotiropoulos is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pellegrino looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Pellegrino the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pellegrino throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sotiropoulos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Sotiropoulos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: George Sotiropoulos over Kurt Pellegrino. We're leaning Sotiropoulos here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brendan Schaub (6-5) taking on Chris Tuchscherer (1-3). Schaub is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Schaub is rated at 1225 — 573 points above Tuchscherer's 652. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schaub throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuchscherer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Schaub has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Schaub over Chris Tuchscherer. We're leaning Schaub here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ricardo Romero (1-2) taking on Seth Petruzelli (0-4).

Romero is rated at 787 — 151 points above Petruzelli's 636. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petruzelli throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Petruzelli is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Romero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Romero over Seth Petruzelli. The model gives Romero a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Kendall Grove (7-6) taking on Goran Reljic (1-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Grove.

Grove is rated at 1085 — 181 points above Reljic's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grove throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Reljic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Reljic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kendall Grove over Goran Reljic. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grove at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Harris (3-1) taking on David Branch (4-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Branch at 1211 versus Harris at 1124. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Harris rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harris throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Branch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gerald Harris over David Branch. The model gives Harris a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Roberts (3-4) taking on Forrest Petz (2-5). Roberts will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Roberts is rated at 1081 — 294 points above Petz's 787. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Roberts's wrestler game against Petz's striker approach. Roberts looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Petz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Petz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Roberts over Forrest Petz. The model is firm on this one: Roberts at 76%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jon Madsen (4-1) taking on Karlos Vemola (2-4). Vemola will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Madsen is rated at 1191 — 350 points above Vemola's 840. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Madsen rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madsen throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Madsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Vemola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Madsen over Karlos Vemola. The model gives Madsen a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.