UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
Sunday, March 21, 2010·Broomfield, Colorado, USA·11 fights
Model: 10/11(91%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jon Jones won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jones 82%18% Vera
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
STRONG
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +139(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Jones)
HeavyweightHIT
Junior Dos Santos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Santos 81%19% Gonzaga
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
STRONG
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +234(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.7(favors Gonzaga)
HeavyweightHIT
Cheick Kongo won by KO/TKO (R3)
Kongo 76%24% Buentello
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
STRONG
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -10(favors Buentello)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Buentello)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Kongo)
MiddleweightHIT
Alessio Sakara won by KO/TKO (R1)
Sakara 72%28% Irvin
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +97(favors Sakara)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Irvin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Sakara)
LightweightHIT
Clay Guida won by Submission (R2)
Guida 69%31% Gugerty
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +251(favors Guida)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Guida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Guida)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Vladimir Matyushenko won by Decision - Split (R3)
Matyushenko 51%49% Marshall
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -68(favors Marshall)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Marshall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Matyushenko)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Darren Elkins won by KO/TKO (R1)
Elkins 51%49% Ludwig
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -184(favors Ludwig)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Ludwig)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ludwig)
WelterweightHIT
John Howard won by KO/TKO (R1)
Howard 63%37% Roberts
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +262(favors Howard)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Howard)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Howard)
HeavyweightHIT
Brendan Schaub won by KO/TKO (R1)
Schaub 59%41% Gormley
Over/UnderUnder 67%
Under 67%Over 33%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -83(favors Gormley)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Schaub)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Gormley)
WelterweightHIT
Mike Pierce won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pierce 76%24% Paulino
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +187(favors Pierce)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Pierce)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Pierce)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Jason Brilz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brilz 50%50% Schafer
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +37(favors Brilz)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Brilz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Schafer)