UFC Live: Vera vs Jones: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jon Jones (22-1) taking on Brandon Vera (8-7). Jones will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jones is rated at 2213 — 1115 points above Vera's 1098. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Jones over Brandon Vera. The model is firm on this one: Jones at 82%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-8) taking on Gabriel Gonzaga (12-10).

Santos is rated at 1427 — 356 points above Gonzaga's 1072. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Santos brings a versatile approach, while Gonzaga is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Gonzaga the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Gabriel Gonzaga. The model is firm on this one: Santos at 81%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-6-1) taking on Paul Buentello (3-3). Kongo is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Kongo is rated at 1267 — 174 points above Buentello's 1094. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Kongo brings a versatile approach, while Buentello is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Buentello the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buentello throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Buentello has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Paul Buentello. The model is firm on this one: Kongo at 76%.

The Middleweight matchup features Alessio Sakara (6-8) taking on James Irvin (4-6). Irvin is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Sakara at 1016 versus Irvin at 881. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Sakara brings a versatile approach, while Irvin is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Irvin the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Irvin throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sakara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Sakara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessio Sakara over James Irvin. We're leaning Sakara here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-19) taking on Shannon Gugerty (2-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gugerty.

Guida carries a modest Elo edge (1054 to 985), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over Shannon Gugerty. We're leaning Guida here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vladimir Matyushenko (7-5) taking on Eliot Marshall (3-3). Marshall is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Matyushenko is rated at 1255 — 308 points above Marshall's 947. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Matyushenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Marshall is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Matyushenko the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marshall throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Matyushenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Marshall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vladimir Matyushenko over Eliot Marshall. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Matyushenko at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-11) taking on Duane Ludwig (4-5).

Elkins is rated at 1191 — 297 points above Ludwig's 894. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Elkins's wrestler game against Ludwig's striker approach. Elkins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ludwig brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ludwig throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ludwig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Elkins over Duane Ludwig. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elkins at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features John Howard (7-7) taking on Daniel Roberts (3-4). Roberts is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Roberts carries a modest Elo edge (1081 to 1023), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Howard's striker game against Roberts's wrestler approach. Howard brings a versatile approach, while Roberts looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Howard throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Howard over Daniel Roberts. The model gives Howard a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brendan Schaub (6-5) taking on Chase Gormley (0-2).

Schaub is rated at 1225 — 569 points above Gormley's 656. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schaub throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gormley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Schaub has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Schaub over Chase Gormley. The model gives Schaub a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pierce (9-5) taking on Julio Paulino (0-2).

Pierce is rated at 1316 — 454 points above Paulino's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pierce throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pierce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Paulino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Pierce over Julio Paulino. The model is firm on this one: Pierce at 76%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jason Brilz (3-4) taking on Eric Schafer (3-6). Schafer is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brilz at 1045 versus Schafer at 921. That 124-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brilz throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Schafer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Brilz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eric Schafer over Jason Brilz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Schafer at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.