UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-3) taking on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (5-6).

Velasquez is rated at 1747 — 631 points above Nogueira's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Velasquez's knockout artist game against Nogueira's submission artist approach. Velasquez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Nogueira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The model is firm on this one: Velasquez at 80%.

The Middleweight matchup features Wanderlei Silva (5-7) taking on Michael Bisping (20-9).

Bisping is rated at 1615 — 327 points above Silva's 1288. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's striker game against Bisping's all-rounder approach. Silva brings a versatile approach, while Bisping is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Bisping over Wanderlei Silva. We're leaning Bisping here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features George Sotiropoulos (7-4) taking on Joe Stevenson (8-8). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Sotiropoulos.

There's a real Elo separation here: Stevenson at 1067 versus Sotiropoulos at 965. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sotiropoulos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sotiropoulos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Sotiropoulos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: George Sotiropoulos over Joe Stevenson. The model gives Sotiropoulos a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (15-5) taking on Keith Jardine (6-7).

Bader is rated at 1658 — 602 points above Jardine's 1055. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bader's wrestler game against Jardine's striker approach. Bader looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jardine brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jardine throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Bader over Keith Jardine. The model is firm on this one: Bader at 82%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mirko Filipovic (5-6) taking on Anthony Perosh (5-7).

Filipovic is rated at 1235 — 306 points above Perosh's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Filipovic's striker game against Perosh's submission artist approach. Filipovic brings a versatile approach, while Perosh is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perosh throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Perosh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Perosh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mirko Filipovic over Anthony Perosh. The model gives Filipovic a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Krzysztof Soszynski (6-3) taking on Stephan Bonnar (8-7). Bonnar is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Bonnar is rated at 1244 — 264 points above Soszynski's 980. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Soszynski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bonnar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soszynski throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Soszynski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Soszynski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Krzysztof Soszynski over Stephan Bonnar. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Soszynski at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Lytle (10-10) taking on Brian Foster (3-2). Foster will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lytle at 1349 versus Foster at 1222. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Foster is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Foster has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brian Foster over Chris Lytle. We're leaning Foster here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features CB Dollaway (11-9) taking on Goran Reljic (1-3). Reljic will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dollaway is rated at 1099 — 195 points above Reljic's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reljic throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Dollaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: CB Dollaway over Goran Reljic. We're leaning Dollaway here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features James Te Huna (5-5) taking on Igor Pokrajac (4-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Huna at 924 versus Pokrajac at 791. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Huna's striker game against Pokrajac's all-rounder approach. Huna brings a versatile approach, while Pokrajac is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pokrajac throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pokrajac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Huna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Te Huna over Igor Pokrajac. The model gives Huna a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.