UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Saturday, August 17, 2024·Perth, Western Australia, Australia
Model Record: 6/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightHIT
Dricus Du Plessis won by Submission (R4)
Plessis 69%31% Adesanya
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +154(favors Plessis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Plessis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Plessis)
FlyweightMISS
Kai Kara-France won by KO/TKO (R1)
Kara-France 33%67% Erceg
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +7(favors Kara-France)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Erceg)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Erceg)
LightweightMISS
Dan Hooker won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hooker 29%71% Gamrot
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -239(favors Gamrot)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Gamrot)
HeavyweightHIT
Jairzinho Rozenstruik won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rozenstruik 59%41% Tuivasa
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +143(favors Rozenstruik)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Rozenstruik)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tuivasa)
WelterweightMISS
Carlos Prates won by KO/TKO (R2)
Prates 46%54% Jingliang
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -193(favors Jingliang)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Prates)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Jingliang)
HeavyweightHIT
Valter Walker won by Submission (R1)
Walker 52%48% Tafa
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -131(favors Tafa)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Walker)
FeatherweightMISS
Ricardo Ramos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ramos 47%53% Culibao
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -168(favors Culibao)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Ramos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.9(favors Ramos)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Casey O'Neill won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
O'Neill 31%69% Santos
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -159(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors O'Neill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Santos)
FeatherweightHIT
Jack Jenkins won by KO/TKO (R3)
Jenkins 68%32% Burns
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +158(favors Jenkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Jenkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Burns)
LightweightHIT
Tom Nolan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nolan 78%22% Reyes
STRONG
→Elo gap: +146(favors Nolan)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.2(favors Nolan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Reyes)
WelterweightMISS
Song Kenan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kenan 49%51% Glenn
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +22(favors Kenan)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Kenan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Kenan)
FlyweightHIT
Jesus Aguilar won by Submission (R1)
Aguilar 50%50% Nicoll
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +67(favors Aguilar)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Aguilar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Aguilar)