UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Dricus Du Plessis (9-1) taking on Israel Adesanya (13-6). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Plessis is rated at 1989 — 350 points above Adesanya's 1638. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Plessis rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Plessis's all-rounder game against Adesanya's striker approach. Plessis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Adesanya brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Plessis throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Plessis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Plessis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. The model gives Plessis a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Plessis at 50% implied while our model sees 61% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Kai Kara-France (8-5) taking on Steve Erceg (4-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Erceg.

Kara-France is rated at 1397 — 150 points above Erceg's 1247. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Kara-France's striker game against Erceg's all-rounder approach. Kara-France brings a versatile approach, while Erceg is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erceg throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Erceg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Kara-France has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Erceg over Kai Kara-France. The model is firm on this one: Erceg at 77%. The market implies 30% for Kara-France, but our model sees only 23%. That 7-point gap favoring Erceg is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-10) taking on Mateusz Gamrot (8-4). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Gamrot is rated at 1694 — 161 points above Hooker's 1533. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hooker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gamrot looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gamrot the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Gamrot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateusz Gamrot over Dan Hooker. The model is firm on this one: Gamrot at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-6) taking on Tai Tuivasa (8-9). Rozenstruik will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rozenstruik is rated at 1561 — 227 points above Tuivasa's 1334. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rozenstruik throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuivasa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rozenstruik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Tai Tuivasa. The model gives Rozenstruik a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Prates (6-1) taking on Li Jingliang (11-7). Prates will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Prates is rated at 1941 — 544 points above Jingliang's 1397. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prates throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jingliang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Jingliang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Prates over Li Jingliang. The model is firm on this one: Prates at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Valter Walker (4-1) taking on Junior Tafa (2-5). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Walker is rated at 1443 — 654 points above Tafa's 789. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Walker rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Tafa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Tafa over Valter Walker. The model gives Tafa a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 52% for Walker, but our model sees only 45%. That 7-point gap favoring Tafa is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Ramos (8-7) taking on Josh Culibao (3-4-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Culibao at 1036 versus Ramos at 908. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Ramos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Culibao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ramos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Culibao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Culibao over Ricardo Ramos. The model gives Culibao a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 47% for Ramos, but our model sees only 41%. That 5-point gap favoring Culibao is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Casey O'Neill (6-2) taking on Luana Santos (5-1).

O'Neill carries a modest Elo edge (1349 to 1301), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: O'Neill is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Santos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Santos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Neill throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Santos over Casey O'Neill. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 44% for O'Neill, but our model sees only 35%. That 9-point gap favoring Santos is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Jack Jenkins (4-2) taking on Herbert Burns (2-4). Burns is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Jenkins is rated at 1062 — 304 points above Burns's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jenkins's striker game against Burns's submission artist approach. Jenkins brings a versatile approach, while Burns is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jenkins throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Jenkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Jenkins over Herbert Burns. The model is firm on this one: Jenkins at 81%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Tom Nolan (4-1) taking on Alex Reyes (0-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Nolan.

Nolan is rated at 1343 — 600 points above Reyes's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nolan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nolan throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nolan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tom Nolan over Alex Reyes. The model is firm on this one: Nolan at 83%.

The Welterweight matchup features Song Kenan (6-5) taking on Ricky Glenn (4-6-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kenan at 1069 versus Glenn at 947. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Kenan's striker game against Glenn's all-rounder approach. Kenan brings a versatile approach, while Glenn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kenan throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kenan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Kenan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Glenn over Song Kenan. The model gives Glenn a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Jesus Aguilar (4-3) taking on Stewart Nicoll (0-3). Nicoll will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Aguilar is rated at 1024 — 362 points above Nicoll's 662. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aguilar throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Aguilar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Nicoll has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jesus Aguilar over Stewart Nicoll. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aguilar at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.