UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Dricus Du Plessis (9-0) taking on Israel Adesanya (13-4). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Plessis is rated at 1860 — 301 points above Adesanya's 1559. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Plessis rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Plessis's all-rounder game against Adesanya's striker approach. Plessis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Adesanya brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Plessis throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Plessis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Plessis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dricus Du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. We're leaning Plessis here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Kai Kara-France (8-4) taking on Steve Erceg (3-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Erceg.

Kara-France is rated at 1351 — 171 points above Erceg's 1179. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Kara-France's striker game against Erceg's all-rounder approach. Kara-France brings a versatile approach, while Erceg is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erceg throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Erceg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Kara-France has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Erceg over Kai Kara-France. We're leaning Erceg here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-9) taking on Mateusz Gamrot (8-3). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gamrot at 1571 versus Hooker at 1450. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Hooker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gamrot looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gamrot the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Gamrot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateusz Gamrot over Dan Hooker. We're leaning Gamrot here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5) taking on Tai Tuivasa (8-8). Rozenstruik will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rozenstruik is rated at 1385 — 278 points above Tuivasa's 1107. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rozenstruik throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuivasa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rozenstruik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Tai Tuivasa. The model gives Rozenstruik a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Prates (5-1) taking on Li Jingliang (11-6). Prates will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Prates is rated at 1806 — 536 points above Jingliang's 1270. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prates throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jingliang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Jingliang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Li Jingliang over Carlos Prates. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jingliang at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Valter Walker (3-1) taking on Junior Tafa (2-4). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Walker is rated at 1314 — 485 points above Tafa's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Walker rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Tafa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valter Walker over Junior Tafa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Walker at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Ramos (8-6) taking on Josh Culibao (3-3-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Culibao at 972 versus Ramos at 828. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Ramos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Culibao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ramos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Culibao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Culibao over Ricardo Ramos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Culibao at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Casey O'Neill (4-2) taking on Luana Santos (4-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Santos at 1277 versus O'Neill at 1172. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: O'Neill is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Santos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Santos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Neill throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Santos over Casey O'Neill. We're leaning Santos here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Jack Jenkins (3-2) taking on Herbert Burns (2-3). Burns is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Jenkins is rated at 1038 — 268 points above Burns's 770. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jenkins's striker game against Burns's submission artist approach. Jenkins brings a versatile approach, while Burns is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jenkins throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Jenkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Jenkins over Herbert Burns. We're leaning Jenkins here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Tom Nolan (3-1) taking on Alex Reyes (0-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Nolan.

Nolan is rated at 1262 — 464 points above Reyes's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nolan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nolan throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nolan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tom Nolan over Alex Reyes. The model is firm on this one: Nolan at 78%.

The Welterweight matchup features Song Kenan (6-4) taking on Ricky Glenn (4-5-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kenan at 1007 versus Glenn at 886. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Kenan's striker game against Glenn's all-rounder approach. Kenan brings a versatile approach, while Glenn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kenan throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kenan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Kenan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Glenn over Song Kenan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Glenn at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Jesus Aguilar (3-2) taking on Stewart Nicoll (0-1). Nicoll will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Aguilar is rated at 1087 — 260 points above Nicoll's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aguilar throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Aguilar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Nicoll has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jesus Aguilar over Stewart Nicoll. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aguilar at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.