UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Saturday, October 24, 2009·Los Angeles, California, USA·11 fights
Model: 10/11(91%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✗✓✓✓
Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Lyoto Machida won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Machida 71%29% Rua
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +278(favors Machida)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Machida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Rua)
HeavyweightHIT
Cain Velasquez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Velasquez 83%17% Rothwell
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
STRONG
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +538(favors Velasquez)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.6(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Velasquez)
LightweightHIT
Gleison Tibau won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tibau 52%48% Neer
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +83(favors Tibau)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Neer)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Tibau)
LightweightHIT
Joe Stevenson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Stevenson 54%46% Fisher
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +32(favors Stevenson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Fisher)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Stevenson)
WelterweightHIT
Anthony Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 77%23% Yoshida
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +70(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Johnson)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Bader won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bader 76%24% Schafer
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
STRONG
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +64(favors Bader)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Schafer)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Bader)
HeavyweightHIT
Pat Barry won by KO/TKO (R2)
Barry 62%38% Hardonk
Over/UnderUnder 65%
Under 65%Over 35%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -247(favors Hardonk)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Hardonk)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hardonk)
MiddleweightMISS
Chael Sonnen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sonnen 43%57% Okami
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -520(favors Okami)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Okami)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Sonnen)
MiddleweightHIT
Jorge Rivera won by KO/TKO (R3)
Rivera 59%41% Kimmons
Over/UnderUnder 65%
Under 65%Over 35%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +46(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Rivera)
Early Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Kyle Kingsbury won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kingsbury 64%36% Al-Hassan
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +38(favors Kingsbury)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Al-Hassan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Al-Hassan)
HeavyweightHIT
Stefan Struve won by Submission (R1)
Struve 68%32% Gormley
Over/UnderUnder 66%
Under 66%Over 34%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +126(favors Struve)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Struve)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gormley)