UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Saturday, October 24, 2009·Los Angeles, California, USA
Model Record: 10/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Lyoto Machida won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Machida 74%26% Rua
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +388(favors Machida)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Machida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Rua)
HeavyweightHIT
Cain Velasquez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Velasquez 78%22% Rothwell
STRONG
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +414(favors Velasquez)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.6(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Velasquez)
LightweightHIT
Gleison Tibau won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tibau 66%34% Neer
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +58(favors Tibau)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Neer)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Tibau)
LightweightHIT
Joe Stevenson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Stevenson 57%43% Fisher
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +2(favors Stevenson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Fisher)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Stevenson)
WelterweightHIT
Anthony Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 74%26% Yoshida
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +111(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Johnson)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Bader won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bader 65%35% Schafer
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +23(favors Bader)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Schafer)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Bader)
HeavyweightHIT
Pat Barry won by KO/TKO (R2)
Barry 65%35% Hardonk
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -183(favors Hardonk)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Hardonk)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hardonk)
MiddleweightMISS
Chael Sonnen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sonnen 39%61% Okami
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -413(favors Okami)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Okami)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Sonnen)
MiddleweightHIT
Jorge Rivera won by KO/TKO (R3)
Rivera 64%36% Kimmons
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +32(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Rivera)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Kyle Kingsbury won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kingsbury 55%45% Al-Hassan
LEAN
→Elo gap: +26(favors Kingsbury)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Al-Hassan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Al-Hassan)
HeavyweightHIT
Stefan Struve won by Submission (R1)
Struve 73%27% Gormley
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +59(favors Struve)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Struve)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gormley)