UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-11-1).

Machida is rated at 1493 — 617 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Machida is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Rua brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Machida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Machida throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lyoto Machida over Mauricio Rua. We're leaning Machida here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-2) taking on Ben Rothwell (9-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rothwell.

Velasquez is rated at 1589 — 509 points above Rothwell's 1080. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Velasquez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Rothwell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Velasquez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 6.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Rothwell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Ben Rothwell. The model is firm on this one: Velasquez at 78%.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Josh Neer (6-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Tibau at 1019 versus Neer at 872. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neer throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Neer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Josh Neer. We're leaning Tibau here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Stevenson (8-7) taking on Spencer Fisher (9-7).

Stevenson carries a modest Elo edge (907 to 876), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Stevenson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Fisher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stevenson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fisher throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stevenson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Fisher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Spencer Fisher. The model gives Stevenson a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-5) taking on Yoshiyuki Yoshida (2-2). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1708 — 765 points above Yoshida's 943. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Yoshida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Yoshiyuki Yoshida. We're leaning Johnson here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Eric Schafer (3-5).

Bader is rated at 1619 — 742 points above Schafer's 877. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bader looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Schafer is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Bader the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schafer throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Bader over Eric Schafer. We're leaning Bader here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Pat Barry (5-6) taking on Antoni Hardonk (4-3). Hardonk is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Hardonk carries a modest Elo edge (948 to 910), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardonk throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardonk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pat Barry over Antoni Hardonk. The model gives Barry a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chael Sonnen (7-6) taking on Yushin Okami (14-6).

Sonnen is rated at 1430 — 369 points above Okami's 1061. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sonnen's striker game against Okami's wrestler approach. Sonnen brings a versatile approach, while Okami looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Okami throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sonnen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yushin Okami over Chael Sonnen. The model gives Okami a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jorge Rivera (7-7) taking on Rob Kimmons (3-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rivera.

Rivera is rated at 1174 — 377 points above Kimmons's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rivera is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Kimmons looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Kimmons the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jorge Rivera over Rob Kimmons. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kyle Kingsbury (4-4) taking on Razak Al-Hassan (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kingsbury at 835, Al-Hassan at 827. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Al-Hassan throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Al-Hassan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Al-Hassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Kingsbury over Razak Al-Hassan. The model gives Kingsbury a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-10) taking on Chase Gormley (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Struve at 878 versus Gormley at 768. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Struve throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gormley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gormley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stefan Struve over Chase Gormley. We're leaning Struve here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.