UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira
Saturday, August 29, 2009·Portland, Oregon, USA·11 fights
Model: 7/11(64%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✗✓✓✓✓✗✓✗✓✗✓
Main Card
HeavyweightMISS
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nogueira 47%53% Couture
Over/UnderUnder 67%
Under 67%Over 33%
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: -322(favors Couture)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Couture)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Couture)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Thiago Silva won by KO/TKO (R1)
Silva 68%32% Jardine
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +263(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Jardine)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Silva)
MiddleweightHIT
Jake Rosholt won by Submission (R3)
Rosholt 57%43% Leben
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -347(favors Leben)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Leben)
→Takedown rate advantage: +13.5(favors Rosholt)
MiddleweightHIT
Nate Marquardt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Marquardt 65%35% Maia
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Submission Artist — Submission Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Marquardt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Maia)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Brandon Vera won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vera 61%39% Soszynski
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -79(favors Soszynski)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Soszynski)
Prelims
MiddleweightMISS
Aaron Simpson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Simpson 47%53% Herman
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +47(favors Simpson)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.1(favors Simpson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Simpson)
HeavyweightHIT
Gabriel Gonzaga won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gonzaga 66%34% Tuchscherer
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +210(favors Gonzaga)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Gonzaga)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Gonzaga)
HeavyweightMISS
Mike Russow won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Russow 40%60% McCully
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -161(favors McCully)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors McCully)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors McCully)
HeavyweightHIT
Todd Duffee won by KO/TKO (R1)
Duffee 57%43% Hague
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -223(favors Hague)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Hague)
→Takedown rate advantage: -8.8(favors Hague)
Early Prelims
MiddleweightMISS
Mark Munoz won by Decision - Split (R3)
Munoz 35%65% Catone
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -138(favors Catone)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Munoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -7.0(favors Catone)
LightweightHIT
Evan Dunham won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dunham 53%47% Aurelio
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +140(favors Dunham)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Aurelio)