UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira
Saturday, August 29, 2009·Portland, Oregon, USA
Model Record: 10/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nogueira 55%45% Couture
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -193(favors Couture)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Couture)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Couture)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Thiago Silva won by KO/TKO (R1)
Silva 66%34% Jardine
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +179(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Jardine)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Silva)
MiddleweightHIT
Jake Rosholt won by Submission (R3)
Rosholt 64%36% Leben
LEAN
→Elo gap: -266(favors Leben)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Leben)
→Takedown rate advantage: +13.5(favors Rosholt)
MiddleweightHIT
Nate Marquardt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Marquardt 62%38% Maia
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Submission Artist — Submission Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +41(favors Marquardt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Marquardt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Maia)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Brandon Vera won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vera 55%45% Soszynski
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -82(favors Soszynski)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Soszynski)
MiddleweightHIT
Aaron Simpson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Simpson 61%39% Herman
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +34(favors Simpson)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.1(favors Simpson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Simpson)
HeavyweightHIT
Gabriel Gonzaga won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gonzaga 65%35% Tuchscherer
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +120(favors Gonzaga)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Gonzaga)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Gonzaga)
HeavyweightMISS
Mike Russow won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Russow 43%57% McCully
LEAN
→Elo gap: -78(favors McCully)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors McCully)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors McCully)
HeavyweightHIT
Todd Duffee won by KO/TKO (R1)
Duffee 67%33% Hague
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -140(favors Hague)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Hague)
→Takedown rate advantage: -8.8(favors Hague)
MiddleweightHIT
Mark Munoz won by Decision - Split (R3)
Munoz 53%47% Catone
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -89(favors Catone)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Munoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -7.0(favors Catone)
LightweightHIT
Evan Dunham won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dunham 54%46% Aurelio
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +113(favors Dunham)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Aurelio)