UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (5-5) taking on Randy Couture (16-7). Nogueira is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Couture is rated at 1248 — 240 points above Nogueira's 1008. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Couture has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Nogueira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Couture looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Couture the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Couture throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Couture is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Nogueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira over Randy Couture. The model gives Nogueira a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Thiago Silva (6-3) taking on Keith Jardine (6-6).

Silva is rated at 1362 — 412 points above Jardine's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's submission artist game against Jardine's striker approach. Silva is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Jardine brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jardine throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Jardine has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Silva over Keith Jardine. We're leaning Silva here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Jake Rosholt (1-1) taking on Chris Leben (12-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rosholt at 989 versus Leben at 855. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leben throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosholt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 13.5 more per 15 minutes. Rosholt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Rosholt over Chris Leben. The model gives Rosholt a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Marquardt (13-11) taking on Demian Maia (22-10).

Maia is rated at 1371 — 307 points above Marquardt's 1064. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marquardt throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Marquardt over Demian Maia. The model gives Marquardt a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Brandon Vera (8-6) taking on Krzysztof Soszynski (6-2).

Soszynski carries a modest Elo edge (975 to 945), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Vera's knockout artist game against Soszynski's all-rounder approach. Vera is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Soszynski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Soszynski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Soszynski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Vera over Krzysztof Soszynski. The model gives Vera a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Aaron Simpson (7-3) taking on Ed Herman (13-11). Herman will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Simpson carries a modest Elo edge (1097 to 1045), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Simpson throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Simpson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Simpson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aaron Simpson over Ed Herman. The model gives Simpson a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9) taking on Chris Tuchscherer (1-2).

Gonzaga is rated at 967 — 208 points above Tuchscherer's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Tuchscherer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Chris Tuchscherer. We're leaning Gonzaga here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mike Russow (4-1) taking on Justin McCully (2-1).

Russow carries a modest Elo edge (1027 to 974), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCully throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McCully is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Russow has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin McCully over Mike Russow. The model gives McCully a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Todd Duffee (3-2) taking on Tim Hague (1-3).

Duffee is rated at 1133 — 314 points above Hague's 819. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hague throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hague is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.8 more per 15 minutes. Duffee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Todd Duffee over Tim Hague. We're leaning Duffee here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Mark Munoz (8-6) taking on Nick Catone (3-4).

Munoz carries a modest Elo edge (1082 to 1004), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Catone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.0 more per 15 minutes. Catone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Munoz over Nick Catone. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Munoz at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Evan Dunham (11-8-1) taking on Marcus Aurelio (2-3). Aurelio will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dunham carries a modest Elo edge (1019 to 969), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Aurelio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Aurelio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Evan Dunham over Marcus Aurelio. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dunham at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.