UFC 98: Evans vs Machida
Saturday, May 23, 2009·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Lyoto Machida won by KO/TKO (R2)
Machida 64%36% Evans
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -88(favors Evans)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Machida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Evans)
WelterweightHIT
Matt Hughes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hughes 61%39% Serra
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +51(favors Hughes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Serra)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Serra)
MiddleweightHIT
Drew McFedries won by KO/TKO (R1)
McFedries 60%40% Foupa-Pokam
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +77(favors McFedries)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors McFedries)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors McFedries)
MiddleweightMISS
Chael Sonnen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sonnen 39%61% Miller
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -350(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Miller)
LightweightHIT
Frankie Edgar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Edgar 69%31% Sherk
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -142(favors Sherk)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Edgar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Edgar)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Brock Larson won by Submission (R1)
Larson 60%40% Pyle
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +189(favors Larson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Larson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Larson)
HeavyweightMISS
Tim Hague won by Submission (R1)
Hague 48%52% Barry
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -124(favors Barry)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Barry)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Barry)
LightweightMISS
Kyle Bradley won by KO/TKO (R1)
Bradley 47%53% Nover
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -116(favors Nover)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Bradley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nover)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Krzysztof Soszynski won by KO/TKO (R1)
Soszynski 64%36% Gusmao
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +385(favors Soszynski)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Gusmao)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Soszynski)
Early Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Yoshiyuki Yoshida won by Submission (R1)
Yoshida 73%27% Wolff
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +230(favors Yoshida)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Yoshida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Yoshida)
LightweightHIT
George Roop won by Decision - Split (R3)
Roop 67%33% Kaplan
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +64(favors Roop)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Kaplan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.6(favors Kaplan)