UFC 98: Evans vs Machida: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida lands on Saturday, May 23, 2009 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 11 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyoto Machida vs Rashad EvansLight Heavyweight | Lyoto Machida | Lean | 60% |
| Matt Hughes vs Matt SerraWelterweight | Matt Hughes | Lean | 63% |
| Drew McFedries vs Xavier Foupa-PokamMiddleweight | Drew McFedries | Toss-up | 52% |
| Chael Sonnen vs Dan MillerMiddleweight | Dan Miller | Toss-up | 52% |
| Frankie Edgar vs Sean SherkLightweight | Frankie Edgar | Confident | 67% |
| Brock Larson vs Mike PyleWelterweight | Brock Larson | Toss-up | 53% |
| Tim Hague vs Pat BarryHeavyweight | Tim Hague | Toss-up | 50% |
| Kyle Bradley vs Phillipe NoverLightweight | Phillipe Nover | Toss-up | 53% |
| Krzysztof Soszynski vs Andre GusmaoLight Heavyweight | Krzysztof Soszynski | Lean | 65% |
| Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs Brandon WolffWelterweight | Yoshiyuki Yoshida | Confident | 71% |
| George Roop vs David KaplanLightweight | George Roop | Lean | 56% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Lyoto Machida vs Rashad Evans
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on Rashad Evans (14-7-1).
Machida is rated at 1493 — 372 points above Evans's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Machida is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Evans brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Machida the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Machida throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Lyoto Machida over Rashad Evans. The model gives Machida a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Matt Hughes vs Matt Serra
The Welterweight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Matt Serra (7-6). Hughes is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Hughes carries a modest Elo edge (1273 to 1201), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Hughes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Serra is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hughes the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Serra throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Serra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Hughes over Matt Serra. The model gives Hughes a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Drew McFedries vs Xavier Foupa-Pokam
The Middleweight matchup features Drew McFedries (4-4) taking on Xavier Foupa-Pokam (0-1).
McFedries is rated at 983 — 205 points above Foupa-Pokam's 778. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. McFedries throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McFedries is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. McFedries has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Drew McFedries over Xavier Foupa-Pokam. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McFedries at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Chael Sonnen vs Dan Miller
The Middleweight matchup features Chael Sonnen (7-6) taking on Dan Miller (6-6).
Sonnen is rated at 1430 — 544 points above Miller's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Sonnen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dan Miller over Chael Sonnen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Frankie Edgar vs Sean Sherk
The Lightweight matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on Sean Sherk (7-4).
Sherk is rated at 1371 — 186 points above Edgar's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Edgar's striker game against Sherk's wrestler approach. Edgar brings a versatile approach, while Sherk looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Sean Sherk. We're leaning Edgar here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Brock Larson vs Mike Pyle
The Welterweight matchup features Brock Larson (3-2) taking on Mike Pyle (10-8). Pyle will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Larson carries a modest Elo edge (876 to 831), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Larson's wrestler game against Pyle's knockout artist approach. Larson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pyle is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Larson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Larson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Pyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Brock Larson over Mike Pyle. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Larson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
The Heavyweight matchup features Tim Hague (1-3) taking on Pat Barry (5-6). Hague is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Barry at 910 versus Hague at 819. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Barry throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Barry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tim Hague over Pat Barry. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hague at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Kyle Bradley vs Phillipe Nover
The Lightweight matchup features Kyle Bradley (1-2) taking on Phillipe Nover (1-5).
There's a real Elo separation here: Bradley at 903 versus Nover at 767. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bradley throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nover is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bradley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Phillipe Nover over Kyle Bradley. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nover at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Krzysztof Soszynski vs Andre Gusmao
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Krzysztof Soszynski (6-2) taking on Andre Gusmao (0-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Soszynski at 975 versus Gusmao at 871. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gusmao throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Soszynski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Soszynski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Krzysztof Soszynski over Andre Gusmao. The model gives Soszynski a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.
Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs Brandon Wolff
The Welterweight matchup features Yoshiyuki Yoshida (2-2) taking on Brandon Wolff (0-1).
Yoshida carries a modest Elo edge (943 to 868), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Yoshida throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Yoshida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Yoshida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Yoshiyuki Yoshida over Brandon Wolff. We're leaning Yoshida here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
George Roop vs David Kaplan
The Lightweight matchup features George Roop (5-7) taking on David Kaplan (0-1).
Roop carries a modest Elo edge (881 to 830), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kaplan throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kaplan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Roop has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: George Roop over David Kaplan. The model gives Roop a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.