UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Martin Kampmann (11-6) taking on Carlos Condit (9-10). Condit is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kampmann at 1437 versus Condit at 1300. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Kampmann is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Condit is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kampmann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kampmann throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kampmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Condit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Martin Kampmann over Carlos Condit. We're leaning Kampmann here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (15-5) taking on Carmelo Marrero (1-3).

Bader is rated at 1658 — 783 points above Marrero's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bader throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Marrero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Bader over Carmelo Marrero. The model is firm on this one: Bader at 75%.

The Lightweight matchup features Tyson Griffin (8-6) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-15). Anjos is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Anjos is rated at 1443 — 427 points above Griffin's 1016. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Anjos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Anjos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyson Griffin over Rafael Dos Anjos. The model gives Griffin a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Cole Miller (10-9) taking on Junie Browning (1-1).

Browning carries a modest Elo edge (991 to 943), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Browning throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Browning is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Browning has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junie Browning over Cole Miller. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Browning at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-12) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-19).

Tibau carries a modest Elo edge (1163 to 1112), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Tibau looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stephens is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tibau the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Jeremy Stephens. The model gives Tibau a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ricardo Almeida (6-5) taking on Matt Horwich (0-2).

Almeida is rated at 1222 — 378 points above Horwich's 844. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Almeida over Matt Horwich. We're leaning Almeida here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Brock Larson (3-3) taking on Jesse Sanders (0-1).

Larson carries a modest Elo edge (911 to 856), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Larson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Sanders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brock Larson over Jesse Sanders. We're leaning Larson here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Tim Credeur (3-2) taking on Nick Catone (4-4). Credeur is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Credeur carries a modest Elo edge (1085 to 1023), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Credeur throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Catone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.3 more per 15 minutes. Credeur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Credeur over Nick Catone. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Credeur at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Jorge Rivera (8-7) taking on Nissen Osterneck (0-1).

Rivera is rated at 1203 — 307 points above Osterneck's 896. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 6.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Osterneck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jorge Rivera over Nissen Osterneck. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Rob Kimmons (3-4) taking on Joe Vedepo (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kimmons at 767 versus Vedepo at 683. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vedepo throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kimmons is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Vedepo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob Kimmons over Joe Vedepo. We're leaning Kimmons here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Aaron Simpson (7-4) taking on Tim McKenzie (0-1).

Simpson is rated at 1146 — 338 points above McKenzie's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKenzie throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McKenzie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. McKenzie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim McKenzie over Aaron Simpson. The model gives McKenzie a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.