UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Martin Kampmann (11-5) taking on Carlos Condit (9-9). Condit is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 192 points above Condit's 1165. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Kampmann is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Condit is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kampmann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kampmann throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kampmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Condit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Martin Kampmann over Carlos Condit. We're leaning Kampmann here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Carmelo Marrero (1-2).

Bader is rated at 1619 — 728 points above Marrero's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bader throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Marrero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Bader over Carmelo Marrero. We're leaning Bader here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Tyson Griffin (8-5) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14). Anjos is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 357 points above Griffin's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Anjos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Anjos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyson Griffin over Rafael Dos Anjos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Griffin at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Cole Miller (10-8) taking on Junie Browning (1-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Browning at 1005 versus Miller at 891. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Browning throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Browning is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Browning has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cole Miller over Junie Browning. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).

Tibau carries a modest Elo edge (1019 to 941), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Tibau looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stephens is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tibau the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Jeremy Stephens. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tibau at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Ricardo Almeida (6-4) taking on Matt Horwich (0-1).

Almeida is rated at 1189 — 307 points above Horwich's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Almeida over Matt Horwich. We're leaning Almeida here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Brock Larson (3-2) taking on Jesse Sanders (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Larson at 876, Sanders at 896. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Larson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Sanders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brock Larson over Jesse Sanders. We're leaning Larson here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Tim Credeur (3-1) taking on Nick Catone (3-4). Credeur is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Credeur at 1018, Catone at 1004. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Credeur throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Catone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.3 more per 15 minutes. Credeur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Credeur over Nick Catone. The model gives Credeur a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jorge Rivera (7-7) taking on Nissen Osterneck (0-0).

Rivera is rated at 1174 — 244 points above Osterneck's 930. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 6.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Osterneck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jorge Rivera over Nissen Osterneck. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Rob Kimmons (3-3) taking on Joe Vedepo (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kimmons at 798, Vedepo at 780. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vedepo throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kimmons is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Vedepo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob Kimmons over Joe Vedepo. The model gives Kimmons a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Aaron Simpson (7-3) taking on Tim McKenzie (0-0).

Simpson is rated at 1097 — 224 points above McKenzie's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKenzie throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McKenzie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. McKenzie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim McKenzie over Aaron Simpson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McKenzie at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.