UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens lands on Saturday, February 7, 2009 in Tampa, Florida, USA with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Lauzon vs Jeremy StephensLightweight | Jeremy Stephens | Lean | 57% |
| Cain Velasquez vs Denis StojnicHeavyweight | Cain Velasquez | Strong | 84% |
| Josh Neer vs Mac DanzigLightweight | Mac Danzig | Toss-up | 51% |
| Anthony Johnson vs Luigi FioravantiWelterweight | Anthony Johnson | Lean | 64% |
| Kurt Pellegrino vs Rob EmersonLightweight | Kurt Pellegrino | Lean | 58% |
| Dan Miller vs Jake RosholtMiddleweight | Dan Miller | Strong | 78% |
| Matt Veach vs Matt GriceLightweight | Matt Grice | Lean | 65% |
| Gleison Tibau vs Rich ClementiLightweight | Gleison Tibau | Toss-up | 51% |
| Nick Catone vs Derek DowneyMiddleweight | Derek Downey | Toss-up | 52% |
| Matthew Riddle vs Steve BrunoWelterweight | Matthew Riddle | Confident | 69% |
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Joe Lauzon vs Jeremy Stephens
The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (15-12) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-19).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lauzon at 1099, Stephens at 1112. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
Stylistically this is Lauzon's submission artist game against Stephens's knockout artist approach. Lauzon is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Stephens is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Joe Lauzon. The model gives Stephens a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Cain Velasquez vs Denis Stojnic
The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-3) taking on Denis Stojnic (0-2).
Velasquez is rated at 1747 — 953 points above Stojnic's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 14.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Stojnic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Denis Stojnic. The model is firm on this one: Velasquez at 84%.
Josh Neer vs Mac Danzig
The Lightweight matchup features Josh Neer (6-9) taking on Mac Danzig (5-8). Neer is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Danzig carries a modest Elo edge (1026 to 956), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Neer looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Danzig is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Neer the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Danzig throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Neer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Danzig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mac Danzig over Josh Neer. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Danzig at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Anthony Johnson vs Luigi Fioravanti
The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-6) taking on Luigi Fioravanti (4-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 8-inch reach advantage.
Johnson is rated at 1785 — 774 points above Fioravanti's 1012. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
Stylistically this is Johnson's knockout artist game against Fioravanti's wrestler approach. Johnson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Fioravanti looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fioravanti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Fioravanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Luigi Fioravanti. The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Kurt Pellegrino vs Rob Emerson
The Lightweight matchup features Kurt Pellegrino (7-5) taking on Rob Emerson (3-3).
Pellegrino is rated at 1306 — 428 points above Emerson's 879. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Pellegrino's wrestler game against Emerson's striker approach. Pellegrino looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Emerson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Emerson throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pellegrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Emerson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kurt Pellegrino over Rob Emerson. The model gives Pellegrino a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Dan Miller vs Jake Rosholt
The Middleweight matchup features Dan Miller (6-7) taking on Jake Rosholt (1-2).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Miller at 995, Rosholt at 985. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Rosholt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dan Miller over Jake Rosholt. The model is firm on this one: Miller at 78%.
Matt Veach vs Matt Grice
The Lightweight matchup features Matt Veach (1-2) taking on Matt Grice (2-5).
Veach is rated at 958 — 175 points above Grice's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Grice throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Grice is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Veach has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Grice over Matt Veach. The model gives Grice a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.
Gleison Tibau vs Rich Clementi
The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-12) taking on Rich Clementi (5-5).
Tibau carries a modest Elo edge (1163 to 1098), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Clementi throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Clementi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Rich Clementi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tibau at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Nick Catone vs Derek Downey
The Middleweight matchup features Nick Catone (4-4) taking on Derek Downey (0-1).
Catone is rated at 1023 — 189 points above Downey's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Downey throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Downey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Downey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Derek Downey over Nick Catone. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Downey at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Matthew Riddle vs Steve Bruno
The Welterweight matchup features Matthew Riddle (7-3) taking on Steve Bruno (1-2).
Riddle is rated at 1177 — 247 points above Bruno's 930. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Riddle throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Riddle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Riddle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matthew Riddle over Steve Bruno. We're leaning Riddle here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.