UFC Fight Night - Fight for the Troops: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night - Fight for the Troops lands on Wednesday, December 10, 2008 in Fayetteville, North Carolina, USA with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Koscheck vs Yoshiyuki YoshidaWelterweight | Josh Koscheck | Lean | 64% |
| Mike Swick vs Jonathan GouletWelterweight | Mike Swick | Lean | 58% |
| Steve Cantwell vs Razak Al-HassanLight Heavyweight | Steve Cantwell | Lean | 55% |
| Tim Credeur vs Nate LoughranMiddleweight | Tim Credeur | Lean | 56% |
| Jim Miller vs Matt WimanLightweight | Matt Wiman | Lean | 62% |
| Luigi Fioravanti vs Brodie FarberCatch Weight | Luigi Fioravanti | Confident | 74% |
| Steve Bruno vs Johnny ReesWelterweight | Johnny Rees | Lean | 59% |
| Ben Saunders vs Brandon WolffWelterweight | Ben Saunders | Strong | 77% |
| Dale Hartt vs Corey HillLightweight | Corey Hill | Confident | 69% |
| Justin McCully vs Eddie SanchezHeavyweight | Eddie Sanchez | Lean | 61% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Josh Koscheck vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida
The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Yoshiyuki Yoshida (2-2). Koscheck will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Koscheck at 939, Yoshida at 943. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Koscheck throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yoshida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 14.9 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Yoshiyuki Yoshida. The model gives Koscheck a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Mike Swick vs Jonathan Goulet
The Welterweight matchup features Mike Swick (10-4) taking on Jonathan Goulet (4-4). Swick will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
Swick carries a modest Elo edge (1045 to 997), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Swick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Goulet is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Goulet the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Swick throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Goulet is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Swick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mike Swick over Jonathan Goulet. The model gives Swick a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Steve Cantwell vs Razak Al-Hassan
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Steve Cantwell (1-4) taking on Razak Al-Hassan (0-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Al-Hassan at 827 versus Cantwell at 726. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Al-Hassan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Al-Hassan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Al-Hassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Steve Cantwell over Razak Al-Hassan. The model gives Cantwell a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.
Tim Credeur vs Nate Loughran
The Middleweight matchup features Tim Credeur (3-1) taking on Nate Loughran (1-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Credeur at 1018, Loughran at 989. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Credeur throws significantly more leather — a 9.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Loughran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Credeur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tim Credeur over Nate Loughran. The model gives Credeur a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Jim Miller vs Matt Wiman
The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Matt Wiman (10-7). Miller will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Miller is rated at 1213 — 345 points above Wiman's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Miller is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Wiman is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Miller the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Wiman throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Wiman over Jim Miller. The model gives Wiman a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Luigi Fioravanti vs Brodie Farber
The Catch Weight matchup features Luigi Fioravanti (4-4) taking on Brodie Farber (0-1).
Fioravanti is rated at 987 — 163 points above Farber's 824. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Farber throws significantly more leather — a 8.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Fioravanti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Fioravanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Luigi Fioravanti over Brodie Farber. We're leaning Fioravanti here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Steve Bruno vs Johnny Rees
The Welterweight matchup features Steve Bruno (1-1) taking on Johnny Rees (0-1).
Bruno is rated at 948 — 161 points above Rees's 786. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rees throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bruno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Rees has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Johnny Rees over Steve Bruno. The model gives Rees a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Ben Saunders vs Brandon Wolff
The Welterweight matchup features Ben Saunders (9-9) taking on Brandon Wolff (0-1).
Wolff carries a modest Elo edge (868 to 812), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Saunders throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Saunders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Wolff has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ben Saunders over Brandon Wolff. The model is firm on this one: Saunders at 77%.
Dale Hartt vs Corey Hill
The Lightweight matchup features Dale Hartt (1-1) taking on Corey Hill (1-1). Hill is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 11-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Hartt at 903 versus Hill at 786. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Corey Hill over Dale Hartt. We're leaning Hill here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Justin McCully vs Eddie Sanchez
The Heavyweight matchup features Justin McCully (2-1) taking on Eddie Sanchez (3-2).
McCully carries a modest Elo edge (974 to 919), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. McCully is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Eddie Sanchez over Justin McCully. The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.