UFC 80: Rapid Fire: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features BJ Penn (12-12-2) taking on Joe Stevenson (8-7).

Penn carries a modest Elo edge (938 to 907), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Penn is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Stevenson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Penn the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stevenson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stevenson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Stevenson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Stevenson over BJ Penn. The model gives Stevenson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Fabricio Werdum (11-6) taking on Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9).

Werdum is rated at 1495 — 528 points above Gonzaga's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Werdum looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gonzaga is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Werdum the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Werdum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fabricio Werdum over Gabriel Gonzaga. The model gives Werdum a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Marcus Davis (9-5) taking on Jess Liaudin (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Davis at 1032 versus Liaudin at 940. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liaudin throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcus Davis over Jess Liaudin. The model is firm on this one: Davis at 75%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Wilson Gouveia (6-3) taking on Jason Lambert (4-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gouveia at 1030 versus Lambert at 890. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lambert throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gouveia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Gouveia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wilson Gouveia over Jason Lambert. The model gives Gouveia a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jorge Rivera (7-7) taking on Kendall Grove (7-5). Grove is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Rivera is rated at 1174 — 180 points above Grove's 994. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rivera brings a versatile approach, while Grove is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Grove the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Grove is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kendall Grove over Jorge Rivera. The model gives Grove a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Antoni Hardonk (4-3) taking on Colin Robinson (0-1).

Hardonk is rated at 948 — 192 points above Robinson's 757. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robinson throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Robinson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Hardonk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antoni Hardonk over Colin Robinson. We're leaning Hardonk here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Paul Kelly (5-3) taking on Paul Taylor (3-5). Taylor is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Taylor carries a modest Elo edge (1057 to 998), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Kelly looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Taylor is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kelly the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taylor throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Taylor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paul Taylor over Paul Kelly. We're leaning Taylor here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alessio Sakara (6-7) taking on James Lee (0-0).

Sakara carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 852), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakara throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sakara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.2 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessio Sakara over James Lee. The model is firm on this one: Sakara at 76%.

The Lightweight matchup features Sam Stout (9-10) taking on Per Eklund (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Eklund at 874 versus Stout at 756. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Eklund is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Eklund has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Stout over Per Eklund. The model gives Stout a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.