UFC 70: Nations Collide: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 70: Nations Collide lands on Saturday, April 21, 2007 in Manchester, England, United Kingdom with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Gonzaga vs Mirko FilipovicHeavyweight | Gabriel Gonzaga | Lean | 64% |
| Andrei Arlovski vs Fabricio WerdumHeavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Confident | 67% |
| Michael Bisping vs Elvis SinosicLight Heavyweight | Michael Bisping | Lean | 60% |
| Lyoto Machida vs David HeathLight Heavyweight | Lyoto Machida | Confident | 66% |
| Cheick Kongo vs Assuerio SilvaHeavyweight | Cheick Kongo | Strong | 86% |
| Terry Etim vs Matt GriceLightweight | Terry Etim | Lean | 58% |
| Junior Assuncao vs David LeeLightweight | David Lee | Confident | 65% |
| Alessio Sakara vs Victor ValimakiLight Heavyweight | Alessio Sakara | Lean | 63% |
| Jess Liaudin vs Dennis SiverWelterweight | Jess Liaudin | Lean | 60% |
| Paul Taylor vs Edilberto de OliveiraWelterweight | Edilberto de Oliveira | Lean | 61% |
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Gabriel Gonzaga vs Mirko Filipovic
The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-10) taking on Mirko Filipovic (5-6). Gonzaga will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Filipovic is rated at 1235 — 163 points above Gonzaga's 1072. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Filipovic throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Filipovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Mirko Filipovic. The model gives Gonzaga a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Andrei Arlovski vs Fabricio Werdum
The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-18) taking on Fabricio Werdum (12-6).
Werdum is rated at 1625 — 632 points above Arlovski's 993. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Werdum looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Werdum the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Werdum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Werdum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Fabricio Werdum. We're leaning Arlovski here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Michael Bisping vs Elvis Sinosic
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-9) taking on Elvis Sinosic (1-6). Sinosic is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Bisping is rated at 1615 — 775 points above Sinosic's 840. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Bisping's striker game against Sinosic's wrestler approach. Bisping brings a versatile approach, while Sinosic looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Michael Bisping over Elvis Sinosic. The model gives Bisping a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Lyoto Machida vs David Heath
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (16-8) taking on David Heath (2-3). Machida is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Machida is rated at 1596 — 767 points above Heath's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Machida throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Machida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Lyoto Machida over David Heath. We're leaning Machida here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Cheick Kongo vs Assuerio Silva
The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-6-1) taking on Assuerio Silva (0-3).
Kongo is rated at 1267 — 421 points above Silva's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Assuerio Silva. The model is firm on this one: Kongo at 86%.
Terry Etim vs Matt Grice
The Lightweight matchup features Terry Etim (6-5) taking on Matt Grice (2-5). Etim is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Etim is rated at 982 — 198 points above Grice's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Grice throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Grice is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Grice has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Terry Etim over Matt Grice. The model gives Etim a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Junior Assuncao vs David Lee
The Lightweight matchup features Junior Assuncao (2-3) taking on David Lee (0-2).
Assuncao is rated at 1000 — 355 points above Lee's 645. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: David Lee over Junior Assuncao. We're leaning Lee here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Alessio Sakara vs Victor Valimaki
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alessio Sakara (6-8) taking on Victor Valimaki (0-2).
Sakara is rated at 1016 — 358 points above Valimaki's 658. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sakara throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sakara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Valimaki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alessio Sakara over Victor Valimaki. The model gives Sakara a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Jess Liaudin vs Dennis Siver
The Welterweight matchup features Jess Liaudin (2-3) taking on Dennis Siver (12-8). Liaudin is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Siver is rated at 1351 — 426 points above Liaudin's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Siver throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Siver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jess Liaudin over Dennis Siver. The model gives Liaudin a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Paul Taylor vs Edilberto de Oliveira
The Welterweight matchup features Paul Taylor (4-5) taking on Edilberto de Oliveira (0-2).
Taylor is rated at 1070 — 344 points above Oliveira's 726. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Edilberto de Oliveira over Paul Taylor. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.