UFC 68: The Uprising: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Randy Couture (16-7) taking on Tim Sylvia (9-3). Sylvia is the bigger frame at 6'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Sylvia carries a modest Elo edge (1296 to 1248), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Couture rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Couture looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sylvia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Couture the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sylvia throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Couture is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Sylvia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Couture over Tim Sylvia. The model gives Couture a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Martin Kampmann (11-5) taking on Drew McFedries (4-4).

Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 375 points above McFedries's 983. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Kampmann's all-rounder game against McFedries's knockout artist approach. Kampmann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McFedries is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McFedries throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. McFedries is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Kampmann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Martin Kampmann over Drew McFedries. We're leaning Kampmann here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Rich Franklin (14-5) taking on Jason MacDonald (6-7). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Franklin is rated at 1094 — 263 points above MacDonald's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Franklin is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while MacDonald is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Franklin the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franklin throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Franklin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Franklin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rich Franklin over Jason MacDonald. We're leaning Franklin here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Chris Lytle (9-10). Hughes will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lytle carries a modest Elo edge (1330 to 1273), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Hughes over Chris Lytle. The model is firm on this one: Hughes at 78%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jason Lambert (4-3) taking on Renato Sobral (5-4).

Sobral is rated at 1190 — 299 points above Lambert's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lambert throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobral is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Sobral has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Sobral over Jason Lambert. The model gives Sobral a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Matt Hamill (10-4) taking on Rex Holman (0-0).

Hamill is rated at 1150 — 216 points above Holman's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamill throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.1 more per 15 minutes. Holman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Hamill over Rex Holman. The model is firm on this one: Hamill at 85%.

The Welterweight matchup features Jon Fitch (14-2-1) taking on Luigi Fioravanti (4-4). Fitch is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Fitch is rated at 1398 — 411 points above Fioravanti's 987. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fitch throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Fitch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Fioravanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Fitch over Luigi Fioravanti. We're leaning Fitch here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Jason Dent (1-2).

Tibau carries a modest Elo edge (1019 to 956), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dent throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dent is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dent has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason Dent over Gleison Tibau. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dent at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jamie Varner (3-5) taking on Jason Gilliam (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Varner at 774, Gilliam at 753. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Varner throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Varner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.0 more per 15 minutes. Gilliam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamie Varner over Jason Gilliam. The model is firm on this one: Varner at 82%.