UFC 62: Liddell vs Sobral: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-7) taking on Renato Sobral (6-4).

Liddell carries a modest Elo edge (1275 to 1224), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Liddell's striker game against Sobral's wrestler approach. Liddell brings a versatile approach, while Sobral looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobral is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Sobral over Chuck Liddell. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sobral at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Forrest Griffin (10-5) taking on Stephan Bonnar (8-7).

Griffin is rated at 1448 — 204 points above Bonnar's 1244. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bonnar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bonnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Forrest Griffin over Stephan Bonnar. The model gives Griffin a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Nick Diaz (7-7) taking on Josh Neer (6-9). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1304 — 349 points above Neer's 956. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Diaz's knockout artist game against Neer's all-rounder approach. Diaz is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Neer is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nick Diaz over Josh Neer. The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-6-1) taking on Christian Wellisch (2-3). Kongo is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Kongo is rated at 1267 — 406 points above Wellisch's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Wellisch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Christian Wellisch. We're leaning Kongo here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Hermes Franca (6-5) taking on Jamie Varner (3-6).

Franca is rated at 1156 — 359 points above Varner's 797. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Franca is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Varner looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Varner the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franca throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Franca is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Varner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hermes Franca over Jamie Varner. The model gives Franca a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Eric Schafer (3-6) taking on Rob MacDonald (1-2).

Schafer carries a modest Elo edge (921 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.1 more per 15 minutes. Schafer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rob MacDonald over Eric Schafer. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward MacDonald at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Wilson Gouveia (6-4) taking on Wes Combs (0-2).

Gouveia is rated at 1088 — 382 points above Combs's 706. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gouveia throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gouveia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Gouveia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wilson Gouveia over Wes Combs. The model is firm on this one: Gouveia at 82%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features David Heath (2-3) taking on Cory Walmsley (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Heath at 829, Walmsley at 834. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walmsley throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Walmsley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Walmsley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Heath over Cory Walmsley. The model gives Heath a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-7) taking on Alan Belcher (9-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Belcher at 1374 versus Okami at 1229. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Okami's wrestler game against Belcher's knockout artist approach. Okami looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Belcher is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belcher throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Belcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Belcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alan Belcher over Yushin Okami. The model gives Belcher a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.