UFC 57: Liddell vs Couture 3: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 57: Liddell vs Couture 3 lands on Saturday, February 4, 2006 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 9 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Liddell vs Randy CoutureLight Heavyweight | Chuck Liddell | Lean | 60% |
| Brandon Vera vs Justin EilersHeavyweight | Brandon Vera | Strong | 77% |
| Marcio Cruz vs Frank MirHeavyweight | Marcio Cruz | Lean | 62% |
| Renato Sobral vs Mike van ArsdaleLight Heavyweight | Renato Sobral | Strong | 78% |
| Joe Riggs vs Nick DiazWelterweight | Joe Riggs | Toss-up | 51% |
| Alessio Sakara vs Elvis SinosicLight Heavyweight | Alessio Sakara | Strong | 78% |
| Paul Buentello vs Gilbert AldanaHeavyweight | Paul Buentello | Confident | 73% |
| Jeff Monson vs Branden Lee HinkleHeavyweight | Branden Lee Hinkle | Lean | 57% |
| Keith Jardine vs Mike WhiteheadLight Heavyweight | Keith Jardine | Confident | 67% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Chuck Liddell vs Randy Couture
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Randy Couture (16-7).
Couture is rated at 1248 — 212 points above Liddell's 1035. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Couture has won 3 straight.
Stylistically this is Liddell's striker game against Couture's wrestler approach. Liddell brings a versatile approach, while Couture looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Couture is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Couture has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Randy Couture. The model gives Liddell a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Brandon Vera vs Justin Eilers
The Heavyweight matchup features Brandon Vera (8-6) taking on Justin Eilers (1-2).
Vera carries a modest Elo edge (945 to 892), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Eilers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Brandon Vera over Justin Eilers. The model is firm on this one: Vera at 77%.
Marcio Cruz vs Frank Mir
The Heavyweight matchup features Marcio Cruz (2-1) taking on Frank Mir (16-10).
There's a real Elo separation here: Mir at 1252 versus Cruz at 1105. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mir throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Cruz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Marcio Cruz over Frank Mir. The model gives Cruz a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Renato Sobral vs Mike van Arsdale
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Renato Sobral (5-4) taking on Mike van Arsdale (2-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Sobral at 1190 versus Arsdale at 1043. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Arsdale throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobral is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Sobral has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Renato Sobral over Mike van Arsdale. The model is firm on this one: Sobral at 78%.
The Welterweight matchup features Joe Riggs (5-6) taking on Nick Diaz (7-6). Diaz will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.
Diaz is rated at 1185 — 343 points above Riggs's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Riggs is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Diaz is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Diaz the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Riggs is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Joe Riggs over Nick Diaz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Riggs at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Alessio Sakara vs Elvis Sinosic
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alessio Sakara (6-7) taking on Elvis Sinosic (1-5). Sinosic is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Sakara at 931 versus Sinosic at 820. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Sakara's striker game against Sinosic's wrestler approach. Sakara brings a versatile approach, while Sinosic looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sakara throws significantly more leather — a 7.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sinosic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sakara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alessio Sakara over Elvis Sinosic. The model is firm on this one: Sakara at 78%.
Paul Buentello vs Gilbert Aldana
The Heavyweight matchup features Paul Buentello (3-2) taking on Gilbert Aldana (0-1).
Buentello is rated at 1019 — 189 points above Aldana's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Buentello throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Paul Buentello over Gilbert Aldana. We're leaning Buentello here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Jeff Monson vs Branden Lee Hinkle
The Heavyweight matchup features Jeff Monson (4-2) taking on Branden Lee Hinkle (1-1).
Monson is rated at 1233 — 336 points above Hinkle's 897. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Monson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hinkle throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hinkle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Hinkle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Branden Lee Hinkle over Jeff Monson. The model gives Hinkle a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Keith Jardine vs Mike Whitehead
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Keith Jardine (6-6) taking on Mike Whitehead (0-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jardine at 950, Whitehead at 945. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jardine throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Whitehead is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Whitehead has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Keith Jardine over Mike Whitehead. We're leaning Jardine here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.