UFC Fight Night 3: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Tim Sylvia (9-4) taking on Assuerio Silva (0-3).

Sylvia is rated at 1428 — 582 points above Silva's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sylvia throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Sylvia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Sylvia over Assuerio Silva. The model is firm on this one: Sylvia at 82%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Stephan Bonnar (8-7) taking on James Irvin (4-6). Bonnar is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bonnar is rated at 1244 — 363 points above Irvin's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Bonnar's wrestler game against Irvin's knockout artist approach. Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Irvin is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonnar throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bonnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Bonnar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephan Bonnar over James Irvin. We're leaning Bonnar here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Joshua Burkman (6-12) taking on Drew Fickett (4-3).

Fickett is rated at 1166 — 351 points above Burkman's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burkman throws significantly more leather — a 11.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 41.4 more per 15 minutes. Fickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joshua Burkman over Drew Fickett. The model gives Burkman a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-10) taking on Jorge Rivera (8-7).

Rivera is rated at 1203 — 208 points above Leben's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Leben's all-rounder game against Rivera's striker approach. Leben is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rivera brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Leben is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Leben has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Leben over Jorge Rivera. We're leaning Leben here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Neer (6-9) taking on Melvin Guillard (12-9).

Guillard is rated at 1260 — 304 points above Neer's 956. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Guillard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.7 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Josh Neer. The model gives Guillard a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Duane Ludwig (4-5) taking on Jonathan Goulet (4-5). Goulet is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Goulet is rated at 1049 — 155 points above Ludwig's 894. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ludwig brings a versatile approach, while Goulet is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Goulet the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ludwig throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Goulet is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ludwig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Duane Ludwig over Jonathan Goulet. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ludwig at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Spencer Fisher (9-8) taking on Aaron Riley (3-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Fisher at 1004 versus Riley at 871. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Fisher's all-rounder game against Riley's striker approach. Fisher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Riley brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riley throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fisher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Fisher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Spencer Fisher over Aaron Riley. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fisher at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Jason Von Flue (1-2) taking on Alex Karalexis (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Flue at 843 versus Karalexis at 750. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Karalexis throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Karalexis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Flue has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Karalexis over Jason Von Flue. The model gives Karalexis a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.